Download PDF: 202008_rethinking-investment-strategy-in-a-weak-dollar-worldDownload Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, includingContinueContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”
Author Archives: Journeyman
A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines
Download PDF: indonesia-vs-philippinesDownload As a rising growth star in the Emerging Market universe and South East Asia region, both Indonesia and Philippines share many similarities. First, both countries run fiscal and current account deficit. Second, both have a government that are currently focusing on building the country’s capital through multi-year infrastructure projects. Third, they haveContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines”
Retail Mania: Short Tesla Thesis
The price rally this year on tech and leading hot stocks have been phenomenal. Investors and sell-side analyst price target have been blown away by the stock performance, driven mostly by retail trader’s purchase, as could be seen from data provided by robintrack (https://robintrack.net/popularity_changes). The website is a useful proxy for mania candidate and retailContinueContinue reading “Retail Mania: Short Tesla Thesis”
August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas
Download PDF: monthly_202008Download The Money Flow: How the Money Goes Around From a macro perspective, there is only three players that drive the economy and financial markets in a country: households, private corporations (including banks) and the government. Each player’s action impacts the other and altogether they drive the economic machine of supply and demand,ContinueContinue reading “August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas”
Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly
For the past several quarters, we have maintained a constructive view on Turkish assets, particularly on the country’s equity and currency, as valuations are already significantly depressed even before the COVID-19 rout. Percentile of equity multiples for Turkish equity is near its two decades low and the Turkish Lira is more than 20% undervalued, accordingContinueContinue reading “Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly”
World Country Valuation
Even as world equity has rebounded from its March’s low, many stocks are still cheap relative to its historical valuation. Book value multiple remains depressed as earnings multiple stayed at its historical average, as profitability declined significantly this year for majority of the market. Our three main top pick markets, Mexico, Turkey and Chile, remainContinueContinue reading “World Country Valuation”
Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa
Download PDF: revisiting-latam-and-emea-countriesDownload Brazil: Negative Outlook Valuation is dearer than the average EM countries, although the rout has knocked out excessive valuation for Brazilian stocks. Book value multiple has indeed declined from 2.3x to 1.8x currently, but weak profitability due to depressed commodity prices has translated into an expensive forward earnings multiple at 14x, whichContinueContinue reading “Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa”
Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars
Download PDF: turning-point-in-the-commodity-cycleDownload 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisisContinueContinue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”
Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis
Download PDF: the-investment-case-for-indonesian-equitiesDownload Preparing the Groundwork for A Takeoff Indonesia’s macro profile has significantly improved in the past decade despite still running fiscal and current account deficit. First, government spending has been reoriented toward building human and capital stock, supported by the country’s high savings rate, while public debt level remained among the lowest acrossContinueContinue reading “Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis”
Assessing the Risk in EM Countries
Download PDF: monthly_202006Download Various quarantine measures imposed across EM countries to curb the spread of COVID-19 has put government, corporate and household at an unprecedented amount of pressure. Unlike in U.S. and Europe, where outsized government fiscal stimulus is being rolled-out to help consumers and corporates to weather liquidity pressure during the lockdown period, theContinueContinue reading “Assessing the Risk in EM Countries”
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