dollar

Ten Predictions for 2023

This year has been particularly difficult for most investors as there are few places to hide from inflation and rising cost of capital. Both equity and long-term bonds are down over 20% YTD, and even the value of cash is being eaten out by inflation, which rose as high as 9.1% y/y back in June.Continue reading “Ten Predictions for 2023“

Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation

Since early this year, we have been adamant in our view that the U.S. economy will decelerate rapidly this year amid the combination of the rise in the dollar, yields, and oil price, which all amount to a growth tax for the economy. There is little doubt that the manufacturing PMI surveys will show aContinue reading “Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation”

U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection

Last week the Chinese central bank finally cut one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10bps from 3.8% to 3.7%, and also cut five-year LPR by 5bps to 4.60%, the first cut since April 2020 when global economy was in the midst of pandemic uncertainty. In the past two months we have also seen the creditContinue reading “U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection”

Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar

Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”

Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery

Download PDF: This month’s monthly piece is a short note on three signposts to monitor the growth recovery, taking a bird-eye perspective on risk assets after three separate publications last week detailing our view on oil, precious metals, and select country outlook; links are provided at the end of the piece. First, we are revisitingContinue reading “Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery”

Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM

Download PDF: Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, including theContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”

Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars

Download PDF: 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisis experience,Continue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”

Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog

Download PDF: Monthly_202005_Betting On the Underdog Reflection on the Past Decade The financial market is characterized by the ebb and flow “leader” and “laggard” over time. The last decade was marked by the strong dollar cycle and boom in fast-growing technology stocks. In hindsight, the weak post-crisis growth outside U.S. and Fed’s tighter monetary policyContinue reading “Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog”

February 2020: In-Depth Analysis of EM Equities Performance, Valuation and Sector Comparison

Download PDF: Monthly_202002 Part I: EM Equity Performance in the Past Decade In the past decade, investing in Emerging Markets equity has not been particularly rewarding for most investors. Much of it could be blamed to the weakness of EM currencies against the greenback, rather than lackluster earnings growth in EM countries. All EM economies,Continue reading “February 2020: In-Depth Analysis of EM Equities Performance, Valuation and Sector Comparison”

May 2019: The Dollar Story and Where Are We in the Cycle?

Download PDF: Monthly_2019_April The strength of the dollar has dismayed many investors, us included. The weakening growth in the U.S., as measured by final demand component of the GDP, has pointed downward and should lead to a weaker dollar at a time when China is reflating. We still believe that the current improvement in EuroContinue reading “May 2019: The Dollar Story and Where Are We in the Cycle?”