Download PDF: Copper price jumped 14% last month before reversing its gain amid the shutdown of refineries in China that trigger concerns of refined copper shortages at a time when inventory at commodity exchange warehouses is low. The impact of the electricity shortage in China is not limited solely to copper, but also to otherContinue reading “Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy”
Tag Archives: silver
Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar
Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”
World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation
Download PDF: Developed World: Earnings and Valuation Outlook Earnings for most sector has recovered to pre-pandemic level, with health care and IT sector posting strong earnings in Q1. Growth expectations for both sectors, and materials, are strong and valuation is not demanding for the later. We believe that we are entering a structural bull marketContinue reading “World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation”
Market Update: View on Major Asset Class
Download PDF: U.S. Equity We have a neutral stance on U.S. equity and think it is only slightly overvalued at current level (SPX: 3885 at the time of writing). However, we note that U.S. stocks are priced to perfection and will be vulnerable to bad news, on the back of expensive valuation and potential earningsContinue reading “Market Update: View on Major Asset Class”
March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand
Download PDF: Part I. World’s Equity Valuation One year after the Covid-19-induced market crash, global equity market has gone through a V-shaped recovery with stock market in many countries breaking record high level amid ample monetary and fiscal stimulus. The U.S. market valuation – now trading at cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of 32 times – isContinue reading “March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand”
January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review
Download PDF: Part I: Silver Last week seen silver prices dropped remarkably amid rising long-term bond yield and receding dollar weakness. We have been constructive on the precious metal and commodity complex for a while now and remain to be so in the reflationary environment. There are reasons to believe that the commodity bull marketContinue reading “January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review”
Where Are Precious Metals Headed?
Download PDF: The rally in gold and silver prices this year has been impressive, although both metals have corrected somewhat. With the prospect of further stimulus still being debated, it is useful to revisit the thesis behind our bullish call on precious metals and reassess our portfolio positioning. First, let us start with the tailwinds:Continue reading “Where Are Precious Metals Headed?”
Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM
Download PDF: Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, including theContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”
August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas
Download PDF: The Money Flow: How the Money Goes Around From a macro perspective, there is only three players that drive the economy and financial markets in a country: households, private corporations (including banks) and the government. Each player’s action impacts the other and altogether they drive the economic machine of supply and demand, andContinue reading “August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas”
putamencapital.com 