Download PDF: Last November we discussed the cyclically bullish but bleaker longer-term outlook for South African assets, in which the former has played out nicely until the end of second quarter this year. Our long position on South African bond was closed on August 10 with 10.2% gain while our overweight recommendation on South AfricanContinue reading “South Africa: The Not So Good, The Bad, and The Ugly”
Tag Archives: debt
Brazil: Fiscal Crisis in the Making?
Download PDF: The Brazilian 10-year bond yield has continued to shoot up to 11% this month amid the political debacle in the country and lack of credible proposal from the government to reign its growing public debt. A hawkish Fed, deterioration in Chinese growth and flareup of the pandemic globally all point to downside riskContinue reading “Brazil: Fiscal Crisis in the Making?”
A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico
Download PDF: Brazilian manufacturing sector’s recovery has been surprisingly strong post-pandemic, outpacing other EM countries, despite the still poor health care situation and strict lockdown restriction nationally. However, the strong rebound has not been followed proportionately by the country’s asset prices, contrary to the development seen in Mexico (Chart 1). The country still records contractingContinue reading “A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico”
A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines
Download PDF: As a rising growth star in the Emerging Market universe and South East Asia region, both Indonesia and Philippines share many similarities. First, both countries run fiscal and current account deficit. Second, both have a government that are currently focusing on building the country’s capital through multi-year infrastructure projects. Third, they have aContinue reading “A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines”
Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly
For the past several quarters, we have maintained a constructive view on Turkish assets, particularly on the country’s equity and currency, as valuations are already significantly depressed even before the COVID-19 rout. Percentile of equity multiples for Turkish equity is near its two decades low and the Turkish Lira is more than 20% undervalued, accordingContinue reading “Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly”
Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis
Download PDF: Preparing the Groundwork for A Takeoff Indonesia’s macro profile has significantly improved in the past decade despite still running fiscal and current account deficit. First, government spending has been reoriented toward building human and capital stock, supported by the country’s high savings rate, while public debt level remained among the lowest across EMContinue reading “Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis”
South Africa: Country Overview
Download PDF: South Africa Research South Africa could easily pass as a country that combine various Emerging Markets sins: rampant corruption, mismanagement of government assets and low productivity. Unless a clear economic and political reform is done, it is likely that the country will slowly drift deeper into the abyss. From a political point ofContinue reading “South Africa: Country Overview”
An Overview of Russia: Oil, External Risk and The Banking Sector
Download PDF: The Linkage between Oil Price and The Russian Economy There is little sign that Russian economy is diversifying from energy production and exports in the last 20 years. The direct link and trickle-down effect of higher/lower oil prices to the economy result in an economy that is highly correlated with the global economicContinue reading “An Overview of Russia: Oil, External Risk and The Banking Sector”
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