Download PDF: For the past several months we have ramped up our bearish view towards risk assets amid the unfavorable global macro and geopolitical backdrop. Central banks across the world are tightening aggressively as inflation spiked to decades’ high in many developed countries and over double digit in several developing economies, while fiscal boosts areContinue reading “Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?”
Tag Archives: oil
Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments
This research paper is prepared by and is the property of H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e.com and Putamen Capital and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other groupContinue reading “Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments”
Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico
Download PDF: Remains Overweight Russia Russia and other oil-exporting countries historically perform poorly during a global slowdown, but tighter discipline among OPEC+ and shale producers since last year has bolstered oil prices to above $80/bbl, which creates a positive spin for energy producers. We have been constructive on Russian and energy sector since last quarter,Continue reading “Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico”
$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi
Download PDF: Recent weeks have seen oil price keeps on climbing despite the thawing tension between U.S.-Iran relation that potentially bring additional 1.5 mb Bbl/day supply into the market. We are expecting a continued strong global recovery this year and restraint from Saudi and Russia in ramping up production, as currently the two countries’ oilContinue reading “$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi”
March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand
Download PDF: Part I. World’s Equity Valuation One year after the Covid-19-induced market crash, global equity market has gone through a V-shaped recovery with stock market in many countries breaking record high level amid ample monetary and fiscal stimulus. The U.S. market valuation – now trading at cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of 32 times – isContinue reading “March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand”
The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks
Download PDF: The long-term demand growth of energy products remains intact, mainly arising from rising middle class in emerging market countries. Oil will remain a major source of energy in the coming decades, however, oil-based power source is increasingly replaced by gas and other renewable sources, including solar and wind technologies. EIA projects oil consumptionContinue reading “The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks”
Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?
In the past few weeks, Russians have been venting their rage in both the street and online due to the increasing hardship resulting from various lockdown measures. But even before the virus struck, many have been protesting against the government, including against the planned constitutional reform that would extend President Putin term limit until 2036.Continue reading “Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?”
Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing?
Download PDF: Russia_Country_Research Russia’s growth rate has experienced a dramatic slowdown since the Global Financial Crisis. Domestic imbalances, correction in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the U.S. in 2014 have all contributed to the slack. Since, Russian government has been trying to fix its budget imbalance, reducing reliance on imports and building economic warContinue reading “Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing? “
Musings on Commodity Prices, Inflation Turnaround and Cycle Turning Point
Download PDF: Monthly_201911 The structural backdrop of excess global savings, lackluster global consumption and investment demand and deleveraging cycle have all push bond yields lower. Meanwhile, the slack in manufacturing activity since 2014, magnified by the trade war, has push commodity prices in real terms to a level equal to those in 2001. Subjectively, itContinue reading “Musings on Commodity Prices, Inflation Turnaround and Cycle Turning Point”
The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia
Download PDF: Chile and Russia Similarities Both Chilean and Russian economy are dependent on natural resources, with copper accounting for 48% of Chile’s exports and oil & gas accounting for 41% of Russian exports. Both countries have rank moderately across EM countries in terms of exports size relative to GDP and rank lowly in termsContinue reading “The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia”
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