latam

Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil

Download PDF: Downgrade Chile and Peru to Underweight Our recommendation to trim exposure to Chile and Peru is driven by three things: downside risk in copper price, rising political risk, and aggressive tightening by both countries’ central bank. Slowdown in Chinese growth is going to weigh on commodity intensive Latam bourse heavily through the declineContinue reading “Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil”

EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn

Download PDF: The global economic boom unfolding in the past year is showing signs of moderation, with data from China – the first country to suffer and come out of the pandemic – currently signaling a contraction in manufacturing activities. It is very likely that the U.S. and Euro area will also see a decelerationContinue reading “EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn”

EM Strategy and Dissecting EM Stocks Performance

Download PDF: Potential peak in U.S. Treasury yield and copper/gold ratio, and gangbuster data coming from China, U.S., and Europe point to the passing of maximum growth momentum in post-pandemic recovery. Despite the pandemic still raging in parts of the world, especially in EM countries, strong recovery in China and the developed world mean ultra-easyContinue reading “EM Strategy and Dissecting EM Stocks Performance”

Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star

Download PDF: For long investors have regarded Chile and Peru as one of the more stable Latam countries, as reflected in these countries’ borrowing cost and disciplined management of fiscal and monetary policy. Late last year, however, Peru went through a political crisis over the impeachment of former President Vizcarra by the Congress over corruptionContinue reading “Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star”

LATAM Countries Revisited

Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”