Download PDF: For the past several months we have ramped up our bearish view towards risk assets amid the unfavorable global macro and geopolitical backdrop. Central banks across the world are tightening aggressively as inflation spiked to decades’ high in many developed countries and over double digit in several developing economies, while fiscal boosts areContinue reading “Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?”
Tag Archives: copper
Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy
Download PDF: Copper price jumped 14% last month before reversing its gain amid the shutdown of refineries in China that trigger concerns of refined copper shortages at a time when inventory at commodity exchange warehouses is low. The impact of the electricity shortage in China is not limited solely to copper, but also to otherContinue reading “Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy”
Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar
Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”
Where Are We in The Cycle? Yield, Gold, and Copper
Download PDF: Copper/gold ratio has increased to prior peak in the business cycle, although yield curve is only halfway through. This could be explained by the dovish stance held by Federal Reserve to stay accommodative until maximum employment is achieved and inflation average at 2%, meaning that unlike in previous cycles, pre-emptive tightening is notContinue reading “Where Are We in The Cycle? Yield, Gold, and Copper”
Market Update: View on Major Asset Class
Download PDF: U.S. Equity We have a neutral stance on U.S. equity and think it is only slightly overvalued at current level (SPX: 3885 at the time of writing). However, we note that U.S. stocks are priced to perfection and will be vulnerable to bad news, on the back of expensive valuation and potential earningsContinue reading “Market Update: View on Major Asset Class”
Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star
Download PDF: For long investors have regarded Chile and Peru as one of the more stable Latam countries, as reflected in these countries’ borrowing cost and disciplined management of fiscal and monetary policy. Late last year, however, Peru went through a political crisis over the impeachment of former President Vizcarra by the Congress over corruptionContinue reading “Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star”
Long Term Copper Story
Download PDF: The year 2020 has seen major economies in the world affirming their commitment to limiting the increase of global average temperature to 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial level, with a more ambitious target of 1.5 degree, as had been agreed under Paris Climate Agreement. EU and Japan would strive for a net zeroContinue reading “Long Term Copper Story”
January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review
Download PDF: Part I: Silver Last week seen silver prices dropped remarkably amid rising long-term bond yield and receding dollar weakness. We have been constructive on the precious metal and commodity complex for a while now and remain to be so in the reflationary environment. There are reasons to believe that the commodity bull marketContinue reading “January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review”
End of Year Chart Update
Download PDF: With the year almost ending and asset prices have rebounded strongly, we are becoming increasingly cautious on adding position to our core portfolio holdings and prefer to stay on the sideline until the next correction, at the risk of missing further upside moves. Technical and valuation point to an overbought and overvalued U.S.Continue reading “End of Year Chart Update”
Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity
Downlaod PDF: Earlier this week we published our long-term global themes, outlining the possibility of stronger inflationary pressure and the danger it poses to corporate sector. Meanwhile, we also publish our next year outlook last month, where we argue that Chinese growth will rebound strongly and liquidity will remain plenty, buoying asset prices. With ourContinue reading “Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity”
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