EM Bonds Revisited

Download PDF: We remain positive on some EM local currency bonds, favoring countries with higher yields and cheaper currencies, stronger external profile, and lower interest burden. Investors should overweigh local currency bonds in Indonesia, China, Colombia and Russia, and under weigh those in India, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Chile. Valuation is cheap for both BrazilianContinue reading “EM Bonds Revisited”

Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery

Download PDF: The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousand population,Continue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”

Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM

Download PDF: Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, including theContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”

Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa

Download PDF: Brazil: Negative Outlook Valuation is dearer than the average EM countries, although the rout has knocked out excessive valuation for Brazilian stocks. Book value multiple has indeed declined from 2.3x to 1.8x currently, but weak profitability due to depressed commodity prices has translated into an expensive forward earnings multiple at 14x, which isContinue reading “Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa”

Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity

Downlaod PDF: Monthly_202003 Blame it on the COVID-19 Global bond investors have largely benefitted from the COVID-19 scare this year amid plunging global yields led by the U.S. Treasury. The budding signs of reflation beginning late last year have largely dissipated and investors have been running to safe haven assets, with gold price increasing almostContinue reading “Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity”

September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation

Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”

Equity Research Report: Metrodata Electronics 3Q17

Download the Report in PDF: MTDL Report METRODATA ELECTRONICS Tbk: Valuation   MTDL.IJ (Indonesian Equity) Recommendation: BUY Target Price                                        : Rp 930 Closing Price                                      : Rp 595 Upside (Downside) Potential             : 57.0% Company Profile PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk is an Indonesia-based information technology company. It is engaged in the provision of IT productsContinue reading “Equity Research Report: Metrodata Electronics 3Q17”

Equity Research Report: Emergent Biosolutions 3Q17

Download the Report in PDF: EBS Report  Download the Valuation in Excel: Emerging Biosolutions Valuation Emergent Biosolutions Inc.: 3Q17 Recommendation: BUY Target Price                                        : $49.86 Closing Price                                      : $40.86 Upside (Downside) Potential             : 22.0% Company Profile Emergent BioSolutions Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes immunobiotics such as vaccines and immune globulins that assist the body’s immuneContinue reading “Equity Research Report: Emergent Biosolutions 3Q17”

Equity Research Report: Addus HomeCare 3Q17

Download the Report in PDF: ADUS Report Download the Excel Model: ADUS Valuation Addus HomeCare Corp: Maintaining Growth Momentum Recommendation: OUTPERFORM Target Price                                        : $37.78 Closing Price                                      : $32.55 Upside (Downside) Potential             : +16.1% Company Profile Addus HomeCare Corporation provides a broad range of social and medical services in the home. The company’sContinue reading “Equity Research Report: Addus HomeCare 3Q17”

Valuation December 2016: Telkom Indonesia (TLKM.JK)

Internet penetration in Indonesia is still low (20.4%) compared to other emerging countries, such as Malaysia (68.6%), Vietnam (52%), and Thailand (42.7%). This situation provides the opportunities for high growth of internet revenue by telephone providers in the next few years. Indonesia is expected to have double digit growth for the next 5-8 years dueContinue reading “Valuation December 2016: Telkom Indonesia (TLKM.JK)”