covid

South Africa: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Download PDF: South African government released its medium-term budget plan late last October, highlighting the steps it will take to bring the country’s spiraling public debt under control. South African assets had been bombed out this year, which offers attractive investment opportunities from a tactical point of view. However, structural outlook remains bleak and theContinue reading “South Africa: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly”

Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets

Download PDF: This year, the coronavirus and lockdown restriction enforced globally have driven the financial market at large, far outweighing the impacts from U.S.-China escalating geopolitical rivalry, war in the Caucasus, and U.S. Presidential Election. These themes are likely to continue in 2021 and already some of its effects lingered permanently, as discussed below. FirstContinue reading “Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets”

Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery

Download PDF: This month’s monthly piece is a short note on three signposts to monitor the growth recovery, taking a bird-eye perspective on risk assets after three separate publications last week detailing our view on oil, precious metals, and select country outlook; links are provided at the end of the piece. First, we are revisitingContinue reading “Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery”

A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico

Download PDF: Brazilian manufacturing sector’s recovery has been surprisingly strong post-pandemic, outpacing other EM countries, despite the still poor health care situation and strict lockdown restriction nationally. However, the strong rebound has not been followed proportionately by the country’s asset prices, contrary to the development seen in Mexico (Chart 1). The country still records contractingContinue reading “A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico”

Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery

Download PDF: Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close to zeroContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”

Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars

Download PDF: 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisis experience,Continue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”

Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?

In the past few weeks, Russians have been venting their rage in both the street and online due to the increasing hardship resulting from various lockdown measures. But even before the virus struck, many have been protesting against the government, including against the planned constitutional reform that would extend President Putin term limit until 2036.Continue reading “Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?”

LATAM Countries Revisited

Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”

Monthly April 2020: Peak COVID-19, Counting the Cost of the Lockdown, and Equity Screaming Buy!

Download PDF: Monthly_202004 With the COVID-19 already spreading globally for over two months now and stock market seems to have bottomed, investors are right to ask whether we are at the peak of COVID-19 infection rate. In this article, we discuss where we are in the COVID-19 crisis cycle, the implication on countries’ banking systemContinue reading “Monthly April 2020: Peak COVID-19, Counting the Cost of the Lockdown, and Equity Screaming Buy!”

Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity

Downlaod PDF: Monthly_202003 Blame it on the COVID-19 Global bond investors have largely benefitted from the COVID-19 scare this year amid plunging global yields led by the U.S. Treasury. The budding signs of reflation beginning late last year have largely dissipated and investors have been running to safe haven assets, with gold price increasing almostContinue reading “Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity”