For the past several quarters, we have maintained a constructive view on Turkish assets, particularly on the country’s equity and currency, as valuations are already significantly depressed even before the COVID-19 rout. Percentile of equity multiples for Turkish equity is near its two decades low and the Turkish Lira is more than 20% undervalued, accordingContinue reading “Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly”
Tag Archives: foreign debt
LATAM Countries Revisited
Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”
Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil
Download PDF: Assessing EM Risk Apr20 The Framework: The starting point is to analyze on a big picture scale, which EM countries will potentially undergo a banking crisis arising from the combination of unsustainable hard-currency debt and FX collapse in the current rout. Indonesia, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Turkey are particularly vulnerable due toContinue reading “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil”
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