Download PDF: Three market moves have dominated the macro landscape in the past quarter amid the Fed tightening policy and geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe: rise in Treasury yields, strengthening dollar, and rally in oil prices. These all amount to a growth tax for consumers, which will inevitably lead to a growth slowdown in theContinue reading “Strength of the U.S. Economy and Implications of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion”
Tag Archives: russia
Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico
Download PDF: Remains Overweight Russia Russia and other oil-exporting countries historically perform poorly during a global slowdown, but tighter discipline among OPEC+ and shale producers since last year has bolstered oil prices to above $80/bbl, which creates a positive spin for energy producers. We have been constructive on Russian and energy sector since last quarter,Continue reading “Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico”
$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi
Download PDF: Recent weeks have seen oil price keeps on climbing despite the thawing tension between U.S.-Iran relation that potentially bring additional 1.5 mb Bbl/day supply into the market. We are expecting a continued strong global recovery this year and restraint from Saudi and Russia in ramping up production, as currently the two countries’ oilContinue reading “$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi”
Reassessing the Investment Thesis on EM Countries: Russia, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia
Download PDF: Russia -Neutral View + The tendency for oil prices is to move higher as global lockdown restrictions are lifted and a nation-wide lockdown is averted amid the virus’ second wave infection. Half of Russian equity index is dominated by energy companies and the economy is also very dependent on oil prices, making RussianContinue reading “Reassessing the Investment Thesis on EM Countries: Russia, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia”
The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks
Download PDF: The long-term demand growth of energy products remains intact, mainly arising from rising middle class in emerging market countries. Oil will remain a major source of energy in the coming decades, however, oil-based power source is increasingly replaced by gas and other renewable sources, including solar and wind technologies. EIA projects oil consumptionContinue reading “The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks”
Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?
In the past few weeks, Russians have been venting their rage in both the street and online due to the increasing hardship resulting from various lockdown measures. But even before the virus struck, many have been protesting against the government, including against the planned constitutional reform that would extend President Putin term limit until 2036.Continue reading “Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?”
Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil
Download PDF: Assessing EM Risk Apr20 The Framework: The starting point is to analyze on a big picture scale, which EM countries will potentially undergo a banking crisis arising from the combination of unsustainable hard-currency debt and FX collapse in the current rout. Indonesia, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Turkey are particularly vulnerable due toContinue reading “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil”
Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials
Download PDF: A Look at EM Financials K List of Interesting EM Banks: EM Banks EM banks are relatively more interesting compared to its DM counterpart, especially European and Japanese banks, that have become a collateral damage from negative interest rate policy. EM firms are heavily underleveraged compared to its DM counterpart. Banks in Indonesia,Continue reading “Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials”
Emerging Markets in The Next Decade
Download PDF: Monthly_202001 In this first publication for 2020, we are outlining our bullish view on selected EM countries which will likely benefit as investors diversify from U.S. equities. It has been pretty much a consensus by now that risk assets will likely to do well this year, with some strategists betting on the value/growthContinue reading “Emerging Markets in The Next Decade”
Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing?
Download PDF: Russia_Country_Research Russia’s growth rate has experienced a dramatic slowdown since the Global Financial Crisis. Domestic imbalances, correction in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the U.S. in 2014 have all contributed to the slack. Since, Russian government has been trying to fix its budget imbalance, reducing reliance on imports and building economic warContinue reading “Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing? “
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