Expectation of a more aggressive Fed rate hike amid longer-than-expected inflationary pressure triggered a violent repricing of U.S. stock market in January this year. Core PCE inflation in December continue to rise 4.85% over the previous year, driven primarily by higher energy and food prices, and pandemic-related items. Meanwhile, unemployment rate continues to decline toContinue reading “Macro Landscape and The Fed”
Tag Archives: china
Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments
This research paper is prepared by and is the property of H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e.com and Putamen Capital and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other groupContinue reading “Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments”
Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy
Download PDF: Copper price jumped 14% last month before reversing its gain amid the shutdown of refineries in China that trigger concerns of refined copper shortages at a time when inventory at commodity exchange warehouses is low. The impact of the electricity shortage in China is not limited solely to copper, but also to otherContinue reading “Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy”
China: Implications from Real Estate Crackdown and Growth Outlook
Download PDF: The news related to Evergrande default last month has reignite investors attention to the country real estate sector, which is a major driver of Chinese growth and strongly intertwined to the country’s banking sector. Moreover, property accounts for 70% of household wealth – a significantly higher portion compared to U.S. and Japan atContinue reading “China: Implications from Real Estate Crackdown and Growth Outlook”
Chinese and Asian High Yield Corporate Bonds: Feeling the Heat
The jitter surrounding Evergrande’s solvency problem has spread to other Chinese property developers that account for sizeable portion of Chinese and Asian High Yield Corporate index. Chart 1 and 2 show spreads of Chinese and Asian USD bonds have widened to 16% and 11.5%, respectively, while the total return index declined 18% and 12% fromContinue reading “Chinese and Asian High Yield Corporate Bonds: Feeling the Heat”
Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar
Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”
Where Is The Correction?
Download PDF: For over a year, investors have been rewarded for tilting their portfolio towards risk assets on the backdrop of plentiful support for households from the government’s generous fiscal transfer that supported spending and Fed’s support on the credit market, preventing a crunch in liquidity of the debt market. The unprecedented fiscal and monetaryContinue reading “Where Is The Correction?”
Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate
Download PDF: Global stocks continue to experience a dichotomy in recent months amid unequal economic recovery in the developed and emerging world. With vaccination rate crossing above 50% of total population and covid-19 number goes into the rear-view mirror in the rich world, both manufacturing and service sector has rebounded strongly amid last year’s pent-upContinue reading “Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate”
Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals
Download PDF: Blow-out number of various economic indicators coming in the past weeks – PMI, retail sales, inflation – suggest that the global cycle is peaking out and the strongest period of growth is in the rear-view mirror. In the short-term, the risk assets rally that began in March 2020 is likely to take aContinue reading “Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals”
Global Themes 2021-2030
Download PDF: Last month, we outlined our outlook for the year ahead, where Chinese growth will continue to rebound strongly and global liquidity remain plenty. This month, we are taking six themes for the coming decade, with the focus on inflation, savings-investment dynamic, and transition to renewable energy. I hope you enjoy the read. ThemeContinue reading “Global Themes 2021-2030”
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