A regime change is underway in markets. The two decades of disinflation, globalization, and central-bank dominance that shaped a generation of portfolios are giving way to a more fragmented, inflationary, and fiscally driven world. This note lays out the new playbook across three lenses: the geopolitical backdrop, the shift from monetary to fiscal dominance, andContinueContinue reading “The New Playbook”
Category Archives: Investment Management
AI and Industrial-led Cycle; Consumers to Remain in Doldrum
Both industrial activity and consumer cycle have, for the majority of the time in recent decades, ebb and flow in the same direction. This is mainly due to the existence of common drivers, such as change in interest rates and fiscal spending, that impact both parts of the economy positively or negatively, although at aContinueContinue reading “AI and Industrial-led Cycle; Consumers to Remain in Doldrum”
The Law of the Jungle
The post–Cold War unipolar order is decisively over. What is replacing it is not a neatly balanced multipolar system governed by shared rules, but a far more unstable environment shaped by power, capacity, and self-interest. The escalation–de-escalation cycles that have characterized recent U.S. policies – across trades, immigrations, industrial strategies, and foreign interventions – areContinueContinue reading “The Law of the Jungle”
Atoms > Electrons
Since the beginning of the internet revolution in late 1990s, humans have gradually shifted their daily activities from physical to digital world. The rise of social media and e-commerce has only accelerated this trend, with the average American now spending more than 8 hours per day consuming digital media – a trend that has acceleratedContinueContinue reading “Atoms > Electrons”
AI Eating the (Software) World?
Nearly fifteen years ago, Marc Andreessen – the cofounder of Andreessen Horowitz and Netscape – wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on Why Software is Eating the World. He highlighted at that time valuation for many technology companies was only at par with the broader stock market despite having much higher profitability andContinueContinue reading “AI Eating the (Software) World?”
Bottom Fishing Beaten Industries and Cyclical Opportunities in 2026
The U.S. economy seems to continue its resiliency following the tariff-related distortions during the first and second quarter of 2025, with the preliminary reading of Q3/25 GDP showing the U.S. economy growing 4.3% q/q annualized. Consumer spending accelerated in Q3/25 while business investment and government spending remained healthy, alleviating concerns that the softening in U.S.ContinueContinue reading “Bottom Fishing Beaten Industries and Cyclical Opportunities in 2026”
Eight Things to Watch in 2026
This year has certainly been full of surprises for investors, with AI remaining the core equity investment theme. DeepSeek translated to a brief correction in the U.S. favorite AI names in February and March, followed by the U.S. tariffs announcement that escalated in April, then the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer, andContinueContinue reading “Eight Things to Watch in 2026”
Navigating Through the AI Revolution
“You can see the computer age everywhere, except in productivity statistics” – Robert Solow, 1987. “Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure… Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may putContinueContinue reading “Navigating Through the AI Revolution”
Quantitative Sub-sector Rotation Strategy (QSRS)
Introduction Research shows that the equity market responds to macro news, with favorable macro news tend to be followed by increases in revenues, profits, and investment activities of companies (Modugno and Palazzo, 2024). In the study, the authors concluded that macro surprises could explain up to 34% of the S&P 500 return variation – highlightingContinueContinue reading “Quantitative Sub-sector Rotation Strategy (QSRS)”
Twelve Questions on Top of Mind
It’s summertime and volatility in the financial market has been relatively muted compared to what we saw earlier this year. Indeed, summertime has historically been a period of relative quiet in the market before volatility started to pick up in September and October (Chart 1). For macro strategists, this is the perfect time to reflectContinueContinue reading “Twelve Questions on Top of Mind”
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