Show Me the Data: Equity Outlook Through Growth and Liquidity Lenses

Sentiment and technical analysts are bullish. Fundamental and macro analysts are bearish. This captured the tone among the sell-side research I read in the past three weeks. The equity market 15%+ bounce from mid-June low has made several strategists turned bullish on risk assets, believing that we have seen the low of the cycle. TheContinue reading Show Me the Data: Equity Outlook Through Growth and Liquidity Lenses

Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation

Since early this year, we have been adamant in our view that the U.S. economy will decelerate rapidly this year amid the combination of the rise in the dollar, yields, and oil price, which all amount to a growth tax for the economy. There is little doubt that the manufacturing PMI surveys will show aContinue reading “Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation”

Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?

Download PDF: Three fundamental events have shaped the first quarter of 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine, Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy guidance and delivery of its first policy rate hike since the pandemic began, and greater reflationary efforts by Chinese authorities to stimulate growth. All these happened on the backdrop of a strong U.S. economy,Continue reading “Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?”

Macro Landscape and The Fed

Expectation of a more aggressive Fed rate hike amid longer-than-expected inflationary pressure triggered a violent repricing of U.S. stock market in January this year. Core PCE inflation in December continue to rise 4.85% over the previous year, driven primarily by higher energy and food prices, and pandemic-related items. Meanwhile, unemployment rate continues to decline toContinue reading “Macro Landscape and The Fed”

U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth

Download PDF: The 2021 post-pandemic recovery has been impressive, with record amount of fiscal stimulus propping up household spending and the corporate sector turning into a capex hyperdrive. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy and tilted toward the dovish side in the first half of the year, which fuel the froth and equitiesContinue reading “U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth”

Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments

This research paper is prepared by and is the property of H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e.com and Putamen Capital and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other groupContinue reading “Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments”

Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico

Download PDF: Remains Overweight Russia Russia and other oil-exporting countries historically perform poorly during a global slowdown, but tighter discipline among OPEC+ and shale producers since last year has bolstered oil prices to above $80/bbl, which creates a positive spin for energy producers. We have been constructive on Russian and energy sector since last quarter,Continue reading “Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico”

Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil

Download PDF: Downgrade Chile and Peru to Underweight Our recommendation to trim exposure to Chile and Peru is driven by three things: downside risk in copper price, rising political risk, and aggressive tightening by both countries’ central bank. Slowdown in Chinese growth is going to weigh on commodity intensive Latam bourse heavily through the declineContinue reading “Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil”

$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi

Download PDF: Recent weeks have seen oil price keeps on climbing despite the thawing tension between U.S.-Iran relation that potentially bring additional 1.5 mb Bbl/day supply into the market. We are expecting a continued strong global recovery this year and restraint from Saudi and Russia in ramping up production, as currently the two countries’ oilContinue reading “$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi”

EM Equity Earnings and Valuation Outlook

Download PDF: EM Equity Earnings Outlook The broad EM benchmark has rallied hard in the past year and is now some 15% above the pre-pandemic level. After the fall in earnings for most EM countries – with EM benchmark’s earnings currently still 17% below January 2020 level – the market is now expecting sharp earningsContinue reading “EM Equity Earnings and Valuation Outlook”