Show Me the Data: Equity Outlook Through Growth and Liquidity Lenses

Sentiment and technical analysts are bullish. Fundamental and macro analysts are bearish. This captured the tone among the sell-side research I read in the past three weeks. The equity market 15%+ bounce from mid-June low has made several strategists turned bullish on risk assets, believing that we have seen the low of the cycle. TheContinue reading Show Me the Data: Equity Outlook Through Growth and Liquidity Lenses

Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation

Since early this year, we have been adamant in our view that the U.S. economy will decelerate rapidly this year amid the combination of the rise in the dollar, yields, and oil price, which all amount to a growth tax for the economy. There is little doubt that the manufacturing PMI surveys will show aContinue reading “Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation”

Equity Bear Market and Today’s Macro: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The U.S. and global stock market have officially entered the bear market in June following upside surprises on U.S. inflation that was followed by the Fed having to raise its interest rate by 75bps – contrary to Chairman Powell’s comment that such size of hike is not on the table weeks earlier. Monetary conditions haveContinue reading “Equity Bear Market and Today’s Macro: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly”

Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?

There is no doubt that the correction in risk assets has always been a great opportunity for long term investors to further accumulate equity exposure. Investors could boost their return by gearing towards equity every time stocks fell by over 20%. The question is, how far are we from the bottom in current market correction,Continue reading “Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?”

Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?

Download PDF: Three fundamental events have shaped the first quarter of 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine, Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy guidance and delivery of its first policy rate hike since the pandemic began, and greater reflationary efforts by Chinese authorities to stimulate growth. All these happened on the backdrop of a strong U.S. economy,Continue reading “Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?”

Strength of the U.S. Economy and Implications of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion

Download PDF: Three market moves have dominated the macro landscape in the past quarter amid the Fed tightening policy and geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe: rise in Treasury yields, strengthening dollar, and rally in oil prices. These all amount to a growth tax for consumers, which will inevitably lead to a growth slowdown in theContinue reading “Strength of the U.S. Economy and Implications of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion”

Macro Landscape and The Fed

Expectation of a more aggressive Fed rate hike amid longer-than-expected inflationary pressure triggered a violent repricing of U.S. stock market in January this year. Core PCE inflation in December continue to rise 4.85% over the previous year, driven primarily by higher energy and food prices, and pandemic-related items. Meanwhile, unemployment rate continues to decline toContinue reading “Macro Landscape and The Fed”

U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection

Last week the Chinese central bank finally cut one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10bps from 3.8% to 3.7%, and also cut five-year LPR by 5bps to 4.60%, the first cut since April 2020 when global economy was in the midst of pandemic uncertainty. In the past two months we have also seen the creditContinue reading “U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection”

U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth

Download PDF: The 2021 post-pandemic recovery has been impressive, with record amount of fiscal stimulus propping up household spending and the corporate sector turning into a capex hyperdrive. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy and tilted toward the dovish side in the first half of the year, which fuel the froth and equitiesContinue reading “U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth”

Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments

This research paper is prepared by and is the property of H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e.com and Putamen Capital and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other groupContinue reading “Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments”