Download PDF: Copper price jumped 14% last month before reversing its gain amid the shutdown of refineries in China that trigger concerns of refined copper shortages at a time when inventory at commodity exchange warehouses is low. The impact of the electricity shortage in China is not limited solely to copper, but also to otherContinue reading “Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy”
Tag Archives: gold
Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar
Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”
Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals
Download PDF: Blow-out number of various economic indicators coming in the past weeks – PMI, retail sales, inflation – suggest that the global cycle is peaking out and the strongest period of growth is in the rear-view mirror. In the short-term, the risk assets rally that began in March 2020 is likely to take aContinue reading “Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals”
Where Are We in The Cycle? Yield, Gold, and Copper
Download PDF: Copper/gold ratio has increased to prior peak in the business cycle, although yield curve is only halfway through. This could be explained by the dovish stance held by Federal Reserve to stay accommodative until maximum employment is achieved and inflation average at 2%, meaning that unlike in previous cycles, pre-emptive tightening is notContinue reading “Where Are We in The Cycle? Yield, Gold, and Copper”
Market Update: View on Major Asset Class
Download PDF: U.S. Equity We have a neutral stance on U.S. equity and think it is only slightly overvalued at current level (SPX: 3885 at the time of writing). However, we note that U.S. stocks are priced to perfection and will be vulnerable to bad news, on the back of expensive valuation and potential earningsContinue reading “Market Update: View on Major Asset Class”
Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets
Download PDF: This year, the coronavirus and lockdown restriction enforced globally have driven the financial market at large, far outweighing the impacts from U.S.-China escalating geopolitical rivalry, war in the Caucasus, and U.S. Presidential Election. These themes are likely to continue in 2021 and already some of its effects lingered permanently, as discussed below. FirstContinue reading “Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets”
Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery
Download PDF: This month’s monthly piece is a short note on three signposts to monitor the growth recovery, taking a bird-eye perspective on risk assets after three separate publications last week detailing our view on oil, precious metals, and select country outlook; links are provided at the end of the piece. First, we are revisitingContinue reading “Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery”
August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas
Download PDF: The Money Flow: How the Money Goes Around From a macro perspective, there is only three players that drive the economy and financial markets in a country: households, private corporations (including banks) and the government. Each player’s action impacts the other and altogether they drive the economic machine of supply and demand, andContinue reading “August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas”
Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars
Download PDF: 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisis experience,Continue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”
October 2019: 1st Anniversary of Putamen Capital
Download PDF: Monthly_201910 Risk and Return This month marks the 1st anniversary of Putamen Capital, with Putamen Growth Fund (PGF), our sole and flagship fund, recorded 34.15% return between October 24th, 2018 and September 30th, 2019. Since the inception, we have been exploring various type of equity, option and volatility strategy across developed and emergingContinue reading “October 2019: 1st Anniversary of Putamen Capital”
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