Download PDF: russia-do-you-hear-the-people-singDownload In the past few weeks, Russians have been venting their rage in both the street and online due to the increasing hardship resulting from various lockdown measures. But even before the virus struck, many have been protesting against the government, including against the planned constitutional reform that would extend President Putin termContinueContinue reading “Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?”
Tag Archives: macro
LATAM Countries Revisited
Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinueContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”
Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog
Download PDF: Monthly_202005_Betting On the Underdog Reflection on the Past Decade The financial market is characterized by the ebb and flow “leader” and “laggard” over time. The last decade was marked by the strong dollar cycle and boom in fast-growing technology stocks. In hindsight, the weak post-crisis growth outside U.S. and Fed’s tighter monetary policyContinueContinue reading “Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog”
Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity
Downlaod PDF: Monthly_202003 Blame it on the COVID-19 Global bond investors have largely benefitted from the COVID-19 scare this year amid plunging global yields led by the U.S. Treasury. The budding signs of reflation beginning late last year have largely dissipated and investors have been running to safe haven assets, with gold price increasing almostContinueContinue reading “Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity”
Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials
Download PDF: A Look at EM Financials K List of Interesting EM Banks: EM Banks EM banks are relatively more interesting compared to its DM counterpart, especially European and Japanese banks, that have become a collateral damage from negative interest rate policy. EM firms are heavily underleveraged compared to its DM counterpart. Banks in Indonesia,ContinueContinue reading “Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials”
Visegrad Countries: Bright Spot Amid Slowing European Growth
Download PDF: Visegrad Country Research Visegrad countries growth post-Soviet collapse has been impressive, averaging 4% for Poland and 2.5% for Hungary and Czech Republic, compared to 1.5% for Germany. Exports as % of each country GDP has more than doubled in the last two decades (page 13). Faster growth has narrowed the GDP per capitaContinueContinue reading “Visegrad Countries: Bright Spot Amid Slowing European Growth”
Emerging Markets in The Next Decade
Download PDF: Monthly_202001 In this first publication for 2020, we are outlining our bullish view on selected EM countries which will likely benefit as investors diversify from U.S. equities. It has been pretty much a consensus by now that risk assets will likely to do well this year, with some strategists betting on the value/growthContinueContinue reading “Emerging Markets in The Next Decade”
Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing?
Download PDF: Russia_Country_Research Russia’s growth rate has experienced a dramatic slowdown since the Global Financial Crisis. Domestic imbalances, correction in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the U.S. in 2014 have all contributed to the slack. Since, Russian government has been trying to fix its budget imbalance, reducing reliance on imports and building economic warContinueContinue reading “Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing? “
Indonesia: Country Overview
Download PDF: Indonesia Research Two decades after the Asian Financial Crisis that created a havoc in Indonesian economy and politics, Indonesian role in global trade has been stagnating… … and is still very much influenced by the fluctuation in commodity prices, although at a lesser extent. Relative to other Emerging Market countries, Indonesia’s integration toContinueContinue reading “Indonesia: Country Overview”
July 2019: Recession vs Reflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201907 “For months investors have been concerned about potential recession in the U.S., yet the stock market is at all time high. How could we reconcile these developments?”, asked one my friend who is working at an asset management company. The effects from reflationary effort from China has yet to be seen andContinueContinue reading “July 2019: Recession vs Reflation”
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