Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar

Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”

EM Strategy and Dissecting EM Stocks Performance

Download PDF: Potential peak in U.S. Treasury yield and copper/gold ratio, and gangbuster data coming from China, U.S., and Europe point to the passing of maximum growth momentum in post-pandemic recovery. Despite the pandemic still raging in parts of the world, especially in EM countries, strong recovery in China and the developed world mean ultra-easyContinue reading “EM Strategy and Dissecting EM Stocks Performance”

Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity

Downlaod PDF: Earlier this week we published our long-term global themes, outlining the possibility of stronger inflationary pressure and the danger it poses to corporate sector. Meanwhile, we also publish our next year outlook last month, where we argue that Chinese growth will rebound strongly and liquidity will remain plenty, buoying asset prices. With ourContinue reading “Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity”

Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery

Download PDF: Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close to zeroContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”

Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials

Download PDF: A Look at EM Financials K List of Interesting EM Banks: EM Banks EM banks are relatively more interesting compared to its DM counterpart, especially European and Japanese banks, that have become a collateral damage from negative interest rate policy. EM firms are heavily underleveraged compared to its DM counterpart. Banks in Indonesia,Continue reading “Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials”

February 2020: In-Depth Analysis of EM Equities Performance, Valuation and Sector Comparison

Download PDF: Monthly_202002 Part I: EM Equity Performance in the Past Decade In the past decade, investing in Emerging Markets equity has not been particularly rewarding for most investors. Much of it could be blamed to the weakness of EM currencies against the greenback, rather than lackluster earnings growth in EM countries. All EM economies,Continue reading “February 2020: In-Depth Analysis of EM Equities Performance, Valuation and Sector Comparison”

Emerging Markets in The Next Decade

Download PDF: Monthly_202001 In this first publication for 2020, we are outlining our bullish view on selected EM countries which will likely benefit as investors diversify from U.S. equities. It has been pretty much a consensus by now that risk assets will likely to do well this year, with some strategists betting on the value/growthContinue reading “Emerging Markets in The Next Decade”

Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio

Download PDF: Market Timing Strategy of Emerging Markets Portfolio Despite the recent volatility from the trade war and deterioration in global growth, from a valuation perspective, however, EM stocks remain cheap compared to its historical averages and relative to DM equities. Since around 2012, as the earnings generation capability of EM stocks declined, investors haveContinue reading “Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio”

Chile: A Case of Investor’s Complacency?

Download PDF: Chile Research Chile has enjoyed a developed economy status over the years, but its growth profile is still hugely cyclical due to dependency on copper export. The country is suffering from twin deficit due to weakness in copper prices and the government’s fiscal condition is deteriorating, albeit at a still very healthy level.Continue reading “Chile: A Case of Investor’s Complacency?”

Low Interest Rate Summaries and Indonesian Context

-The Low Rate World taken from The Economist (September 24th 2016) Since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, central banks around the world have been slashing their interest rate to an all time-low to boost demand and inflation to 2% target. ECB and BOJ even employ negative interest rate in desperation to stimulate growth, resulting inContinue reading “Low Interest Rate Summaries and Indonesian Context”