Download PDF: the-bearish-case-for-oilDownload The long-term demand growth of energy products remains intact, mainly arising from rising middle class in emerging market countries. Oil will remain a major source of energy in the coming decades, however, oil-based power source is increasingly replaced by gas and other renewable sources, including solar and wind technologies. EIA projects oilContinueContinue reading “The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks”
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A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico
Download PDF: a-tale-of-two-latam-economiesDownload Brazilian manufacturing sector’s recovery has been surprisingly strong post-pandemic, outpacing other EM countries, despite the still poor health care situation and strict lockdown restriction nationally. However, the strong rebound has not been followed proportionately by the country’s asset prices, contrary to the development seen in Mexico (Chart 1). The country still recordsContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico”
Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202009Download Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close toContinueContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”
Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery
Download PDF: taking-a-pulse-on-em-recoveryDownload The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousandContinueContinue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”
Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM
Download PDF: 202008_rethinking-investment-strategy-in-a-weak-dollar-worldDownload Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, includingContinueContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”
A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines
Download PDF: indonesia-vs-philippinesDownload As a rising growth star in the Emerging Market universe and South East Asia region, both Indonesia and Philippines share many similarities. First, both countries run fiscal and current account deficit. Second, both have a government that are currently focusing on building the country’s capital through multi-year infrastructure projects. Third, they haveContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines”
August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas
Download PDF: monthly_202008Download The Money Flow: How the Money Goes Around From a macro perspective, there is only three players that drive the economy and financial markets in a country: households, private corporations (including banks) and the government. Each player’s action impacts the other and altogether they drive the economic machine of supply and demand,ContinueContinue reading “August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas”
Assessing the Risk in EM Countries
Download PDF: monthly_202006Download Various quarantine measures imposed across EM countries to curb the spread of COVID-19 has put government, corporate and household at an unprecedented amount of pressure. Unlike in U.S. and Europe, where outsized government fiscal stimulus is being rolled-out to help consumers and corporates to weather liquidity pressure during the lockdown period, theContinueContinue reading “Assessing the Risk in EM Countries”
LATAM Countries Revisited
Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinueContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”
Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog
Download PDF: Monthly_202005_Betting On the Underdog Reflection on the Past Decade The financial market is characterized by the ebb and flow “leader” and “laggard” over time. The last decade was marked by the strong dollar cycle and boom in fast-growing technology stocks. In hindsight, the weak post-crisis growth outside U.S. and Fed’s tighter monetary policyContinueContinue reading “Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog”
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