Download PDF: the-investment-case-for-indonesian-equitiesDownload Preparing the Groundwork for A Takeoff Indonesia’s macro profile has significantly improved in the past decade despite still running fiscal and current account deficit. First, government spending has been reoriented toward building human and capital stock, supported by the country’s high savings rate, while public debt level remained among the lowest acrossContinueContinue reading “Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis”
Category Archives: Research
Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?
Download PDF: russia-do-you-hear-the-people-singDownload In the past few weeks, Russians have been venting their rage in both the street and online due to the increasing hardship resulting from various lockdown measures. But even before the virus struck, many have been protesting against the government, including against the planned constitutional reform that would extend President Putin termContinueContinue reading “Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?”
LATAM Countries Revisited
Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinueContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”
Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog
Download PDF: Monthly_202005_Betting On the Underdog Reflection on the Past Decade The financial market is characterized by the ebb and flow “leader” and “laggard” over time. The last decade was marked by the strong dollar cycle and boom in fast-growing technology stocks. In hindsight, the weak post-crisis growth outside U.S. and Fed’s tighter monetary policyContinueContinue reading “Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog”
Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil
Download PDF: Assessing EM Risk Apr20 The Framework: The starting point is to analyze on a big picture scale, which EM countries will potentially undergo a banking crisis arising from the combination of unsustainable hard-currency debt and FX collapse in the current rout. Indonesia, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Turkey are particularly vulnerable due toContinueContinue reading “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil”
Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials
Download PDF: A Look at EM Financials K List of Interesting EM Banks: EM Banks EM banks are relatively more interesting compared to its DM counterpart, especially European and Japanese banks, that have become a collateral damage from negative interest rate policy. EM firms are heavily underleveraged compared to its DM counterpart. Banks in Indonesia,ContinueContinue reading “Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials”
Visegrad Countries: Bright Spot Amid Slowing European Growth
Download PDF: Visegrad Country Research Visegrad countries growth post-Soviet collapse has been impressive, averaging 4% for Poland and 2.5% for Hungary and Czech Republic, compared to 1.5% for Germany. Exports as % of each country GDP has more than doubled in the last two decades (page 13). Faster growth has narrowed the GDP per capitaContinueContinue reading “Visegrad Countries: Bright Spot Amid Slowing European Growth”
Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing?
Download PDF: Russia_Country_Research Russia’s growth rate has experienced a dramatic slowdown since the Global Financial Crisis. Domestic imbalances, correction in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the U.S. in 2014 have all contributed to the slack. Since, Russian government has been trying to fix its budget imbalance, reducing reliance on imports and building economic warContinueContinue reading “Russia: How’s the Troubled Kid Doing? “
South Africa: Country Overview
Download PDF: South Africa Research South Africa could easily pass as a country that combine various Emerging Markets sins: rampant corruption, mismanagement of government assets and low productivity. Unless a clear economic and political reform is done, it is likely that the country will slowly drift deeper into the abyss. From a political point ofContinueContinue reading “South Africa: Country Overview”
The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia
Download PDF: Chile and Russia Similarities Both Chilean and Russian economy are dependent on natural resources, with copper accounting for 48% of Chile’s exports and oil & gas accounting for 41% of Russian exports. Both countries have rank moderately across EM countries in terms of exports size relative to GDP and rank lowly in termsContinueContinue reading “The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia”
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