Download PDF: monthly_202002Download EM local-currency bonds EM bonds still have room for spread tightening against U.S. Treasury. The 10-year Treasury yield will have difficulty to break 1.2% level as the Fed is unlikely to raise rate until inflation overshoot its 2% target, creating an anchor for yields globally to remain low. Moreover, the relatively modestContinueContinue reading “February 2021: EM Bonds, Brazil and Turkey”
Category Archives: Investment Management
January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review
Download PDF: monthly_202101Download Part I: Silver Last week seen silver prices dropped remarkably amid rising long-term bond yield and receding dollar weakness. We have been constructive on the precious metal and commodity complex for a while now and remain to be so in the reflationary environment. There are reasons to believe that the commodity bullContinueContinue reading “January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review”
2021 EM Equity High Conviction Calls
Download PDF: 2021_em_equity_callsDownload Poland Polish manufacturing sector and exports have both staged a V-shaped recovery despite the reintroduction of a strict lockdown across major European countries (Chart 1). As an open economy that is highly integrated with European manufacturing sector Poland has benefited from the sharp recovery of German manufacturing (Chart 2-4), which points toContinueContinue reading “2021 EM Equity High Conviction Calls”
Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity
Downlaod PDF: monthly_202012Download Earlier this week we published our long-term global themes, outlining the possibility of stronger inflationary pressure and the danger it poses to corporate sector. Meanwhile, we also publish our next year outlook last month, where we argue that Chinese growth will rebound strongly and liquidity will remain plenty, buoying asset prices. WithContinueContinue reading “Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity”
Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets
Download PDF: monthly_202011Download This year, the coronavirus and lockdown restriction enforced globally have driven the financial market at large, far outweighing the impacts from U.S.-China escalating geopolitical rivalry, war in the Caucasus, and U.S. Presidential Election. These themes are likely to continue in 2021 and already some of its effects lingered permanently, as discussed below.ContinueContinue reading “Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets”
Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202010Download This month’s monthly piece is a short note on three signposts to monitor the growth recovery, taking a bird-eye perspective on risk assets after three separate publications last week detailing our view on oil, precious metals, and select country outlook; links are provided at the end of the piece. First, we areContinueContinue reading “Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery”
Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202009Download Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close toContinueContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”
Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM
Download PDF: 202008_rethinking-investment-strategy-in-a-weak-dollar-worldDownload Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, includingContinueContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”
August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas
Download PDF: monthly_202008Download The Money Flow: How the Money Goes Around From a macro perspective, there is only three players that drive the economy and financial markets in a country: households, private corporations (including banks) and the government. Each player’s action impacts the other and altogether they drive the economic machine of supply and demand,ContinueContinue reading “August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas”
Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars
Download PDF: turning-point-in-the-commodity-cycleDownload 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisisContinueContinue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”
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