A 60/40 equity and fixed income investors at the beginning of 2020 would have seen their portfolio today resembling more of an 80/20 allocation, without rebalancing, due to the unstoppable bull market in equities and structurally higher yields. Since January 2020, the S&P 500 has delivered 155% total return while U.S. corporate bond benchmark returnedContinueContinue reading “Another Rate Hike Cycle, But It’s Not 2022”
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Turkey and EM Policy Normalization
Download PDF: monthly_202104Download I) Turkey: Back to Coma Again? Various indicators were still flashing red even before President Erdogan fired Naci Agbal – the central bank governor he appointed just four months ago – for pursuing a hawkish monetary policy. Although his firing of Mr. Agbal is akin to shooting himself in the foot andContinueContinue reading “Turkey and EM Policy Normalization”
EM Taper Tantrum Déjà vu?
Download PDF: em-and-taper-tantrum_pcDownload Potential for Sizable Portfolio Outflow is Limited. The period before 2013 Taper Tantrum was marked by strong capital flow into EM assets, in contrast to current situation where flow into EM bonds and equities are only beginning to recover (Chart 1). More importantly foreign ownership of EM bonds, especially for the moreContinueContinue reading “EM Taper Tantrum Déjà vu?”
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