Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation

Since early this year, we have been adamant in our view that the U.S. economy will decelerate rapidly this year amid the combination of the rise in the dollar, yields, and oil price, which all amount to a growth tax for the economy. There is little doubt that the manufacturing PMI surveys will show aContinue reading “Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation”

Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar

Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”

Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals

Download PDF: Blow-out number of various economic indicators coming in the past weeks – PMI, retail sales, inflation – suggest that the global cycle is peaking out and the strongest period of growth is in the rear-view mirror.  In the short-term, the risk assets rally that began in March 2020 is likely to take aContinue reading “Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals”

Market Update: View on Major Asset Class

Download PDF: U.S. Equity We have a neutral stance on U.S. equity and think it is only slightly overvalued at current level (SPX: 3885 at the time of writing). However, we note that U.S. stocks are priced to perfection and will be vulnerable to bad news, on the back of expensive valuation and potential earningsContinue reading “Market Update: View on Major Asset Class”

September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation

Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”