Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”
Category Archives: Investment Management
August 2019: The Long View, Turkey and Revisiting This Year Investment Thesis
Read in PDF: Monthly 201908 As bond yields continue to stumble globally, we expect that more SWF and pension fund will divert allocation from fixed income to both public and private equity, which would be a boon for the deepening of stock market globally. Holding developed countries’ government bond is a sure way of losingContinue reading “August 2019: The Long View, Turkey and Revisiting This Year Investment Thesis”
July 2019: Recession vs Reflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201907 “For months investors have been concerned about potential recession in the U.S., yet the stock market is at all time high. How could we reconcile these developments?”, asked one my friend who is working at an asset management company. The effects from reflationary effort from China has yet to be seen andContinue reading “July 2019: Recession vs Reflation”
June 2019: Searching For The Tipping Point
Download PDF: Monthly_201906 Theme 1: Long Selected Undervalued Countries and Short U.S. Equities. This week U.S. PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the expansion of U.S. economy (manufacturing PMI 50.6 in May 2019 from 56 in the beginning of the year), raising the odds of undershoot of earnings forecast of U.S equities and theContinue reading “June 2019: Searching For The Tipping Point”
May 2019: The Dollar Story and Where Are We in the Cycle?
Download PDF: Monthly_2019_April The strength of the dollar has dismayed many investors, us included. The weakening growth in the U.S., as measured by final demand component of the GDP, has pointed downward and should lead to a weaker dollar at a time when China is reflating. We still believe that the current improvement in EuroContinue reading “May 2019: The Dollar Story and Where Are We in the Cycle?”
April 2019: Is the Recession in Front or Behind Us?
Download PDF: March19_PC It is tempting to argue that we are currently experiencing the “manufacturing recession”, similar to the “commodity recession” we experienced back in 2011-2012 and 2014-2015. All the data is supporting the thesis that we did have a recession in 2018, albeit a mild one: 1) industrial production and manufacturing PMI weakens inContinue reading “April 2019: Is the Recession in Front or Behind Us?”
Putamen Capital: March 2019 Bird Eye View
Four months after Putamen Capital started trading, we continue to build and improve our database, model and quantitative trading strategy to guide our investment decision, with the goal of building an all-weather portfolio that outperform our benchmark (MSCI All Country World Index). This month we introduce an enhanced version of our tactical asset allocation andContinue reading “Putamen Capital: March 2019 Bird Eye View”
Putamen Capital: February 2019 Update
Our decision last month to portfolio equity allocation proved to be a correct one, despite our model suggesting a very defensive position. Emerging Markets and U.S. equity rallied on the backdrop of Fed dovishness and signs of reflation coming from China, the largest importer for many EM countries. We still believe that the growth slowdownContinue reading “Putamen Capital: February 2019 Update”
Putamen Capital: January 2019 Update
Our strategy last quarter to allocate small portion for equity paid off handsomely. Since we first launched our asset allocation model in October 2018, our model portfolio returned by 1.8% while our benchmark, MSCI ACWI, lost 6.0%. This month, the model recommends increasing the defensiveness of the portfolio by allocating 100% to bonds, a safe-havenContinue reading “Putamen Capital: January 2019 Update”
December 2018: Outlook, Update On Asset Allocation Model and Sector Valuation Overview
Thesis Review, US Treasury and Emerging Markets Prior to discussing our model update and 2019 sector outlook, we want to review our investment thesis from last month (Nov 24th), which has been panning out nicely. In the post we wrote: “In the anticipation of Fed backing-off from rising rates further in 2019, we do believeContinue reading “December 2018: Outlook, Update On Asset Allocation Model and Sector Valuation Overview”
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