Download PDF: turning-point-in-the-commodity-cycleDownload 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisisContinueContinue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”
Author Archives: Journeyman
Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis
Download PDF: the-investment-case-for-indonesian-equitiesDownload Preparing the Groundwork for A Takeoff Indonesia’s macro profile has significantly improved in the past decade despite still running fiscal and current account deficit. First, government spending has been reoriented toward building human and capital stock, supported by the country’s high savings rate, while public debt level remained among the lowest acrossContinueContinue reading “Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis”
Assessing the Risk in EM Countries
Download PDF: monthly_202006Download Various quarantine measures imposed across EM countries to curb the spread of COVID-19 has put government, corporate and household at an unprecedented amount of pressure. Unlike in U.S. and Europe, where outsized government fiscal stimulus is being rolled-out to help consumers and corporates to weather liquidity pressure during the lockdown period, theContinueContinue reading “Assessing the Risk in EM Countries”
Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?
Download PDF: russia-do-you-hear-the-people-singDownload In the past few weeks, Russians have been venting their rage in both the street and online due to the increasing hardship resulting from various lockdown measures. But even before the virus struck, many have been protesting against the government, including against the planned constitutional reform that would extend President Putin termContinueContinue reading “Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?”
LATAM Countries Revisited
Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinueContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”
Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog
Download PDF: Monthly_202005_Betting On the Underdog Reflection on the Past Decade The financial market is characterized by the ebb and flow “leader” and “laggard” over time. The last decade was marked by the strong dollar cycle and boom in fast-growing technology stocks. In hindsight, the weak post-crisis growth outside U.S. and Fed’s tighter monetary policyContinueContinue reading “Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog”
Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil
Download PDF: Assessing EM Risk Apr20 The Framework: The starting point is to analyze on a big picture scale, which EM countries will potentially undergo a banking crisis arising from the combination of unsustainable hard-currency debt and FX collapse in the current rout. Indonesia, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Turkey are particularly vulnerable due toContinueContinue reading “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil”
Monthly April 2020: Peak COVID-19, Counting the Cost of the Lockdown, and Equity Screaming Buy!
Download PDF: Monthly_202004 With the COVID-19 already spreading globally for over two months now and stock market seems to have bottomed, investors are right to ask whether we are at the peak of COVID-19 infection rate. In this article, we discuss where we are in the COVID-19 crisis cycle, the implication on countries’ banking systemContinueContinue reading “Monthly April 2020: Peak COVID-19, Counting the Cost of the Lockdown, and Equity Screaming Buy!”
Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity
Downlaod PDF: Monthly_202003 Blame it on the COVID-19 Global bond investors have largely benefitted from the COVID-19 scare this year amid plunging global yields led by the U.S. Treasury. The budding signs of reflation beginning late last year have largely dissipated and investors have been running to safe haven assets, with gold price increasing almostContinueContinue reading “Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity”
The Parallel Case of Medicine and Economics: Reflection of a Medical Graduate Working in the Finance Industry
Coming from a medical background and working as a financial strategist for the past two years, I have always been astounded by how similar both subjects are on a grand scale. The world, it seems, are a perfect analog of our fragile human body. But instead of analyzing what is right and wrong with humanContinueContinue reading “The Parallel Case of Medicine and Economics: Reflection of a Medical Graduate Working in the Finance Industry”
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