Download PDF: central-and-eastern-european-countries-202109-pcDownload Central banks in Czech and Hungary have begun to raise their policy rate this year amid acceleration in inflation as their domestic recovery unfolds, creating a tailwind for the koruna and forint against the Euro, which will not see the ECB raising its borrowing cost anytime soon (Chart 1). With Central andContinueContinue reading “Central and Eastern European Countries: Rising Rates Will Lift All Boats”
Tag Archives: economy
South Africa: The Not So Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Download PDF: south-africa-pc-202109Download Last November we discussed the cyclically bullish but bleaker longer-term outlook for South African assets, in which the former has played out nicely until the end of second quarter this year. Our long position on South African bond was closed on August 10 with 10.2% gain while our overweight recommendation on SouthContinueContinue reading “South Africa: The Not So Good, The Bad, and The Ugly”
$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi
Download PDF: update-on-oil-russia_pcDownload Recent weeks have seen oil price keeps on climbing despite the thawing tension between U.S.-Iran relation that potentially bring additional 1.5 mb Bbl/day supply into the market. We are expecting a continued strong global recovery this year and restraint from Saudi and Russia in ramping up production, as currently the two countries’ContinueContinue reading “$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi”
Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star
Download PDF: peru-researchDownload For long investors have regarded Chile and Peru as one of the more stable Latam countries, as reflected in these countries’ borrowing cost and disciplined management of fiscal and monetary policy. Late last year, however, Peru went through a political crisis over the impeachment of former President Vizcarra by the Congress overContinueContinue reading “Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star”
February 2021: EM Bonds, Brazil and Turkey
Download PDF: monthly_202002Download EM local-currency bonds EM bonds still have room for spread tightening against U.S. Treasury. The 10-year Treasury yield will have difficulty to break 1.2% level as the Fed is unlikely to raise rate until inflation overshoot its 2% target, creating an anchor for yields globally to remain low. Moreover, the relatively modestContinueContinue reading “February 2021: EM Bonds, Brazil and Turkey”
Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity
Downlaod PDF: monthly_202012Download Earlier this week we published our long-term global themes, outlining the possibility of stronger inflationary pressure and the danger it poses to corporate sector. Meanwhile, we also publish our next year outlook last month, where we argue that Chinese growth will rebound strongly and liquidity will remain plenty, buoying asset prices. WithContinueContinue reading “Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity”
Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?
Download PDF: turkey-the-cbrt-strikes-back-and-a-new-hopeDownload The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey finally capitulated to market pressure and raised its policy rates by 200 bps last week amid a weakening lira. This is a reversal of its aggressive easing policy since the 2018 crisis, when the central bank has been under government pressure to bring itsContinueContinue reading “Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?”
Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe
Download PDF: assessing-em-countries-vulnerabilitiesDownload EM equity has experienced indiscriminate sell-off during the peak of this year’s market rout, with losses ranging from 20% to 60% across 18 countries. Since its March’s low, however, few countries have staged a strong asset prices recovery, whereas others are still lagging and have barely recover half of their losses (ChartContinueContinue reading “Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe”
Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM
Download PDF: 202008_rethinking-investment-strategy-in-a-weak-dollar-worldDownload Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, includingContinueContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”
A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines
Download PDF: indonesia-vs-philippinesDownload As a rising growth star in the Emerging Market universe and South East Asia region, both Indonesia and Philippines share many similarities. First, both countries run fiscal and current account deficit. Second, both have a government that are currently focusing on building the country’s capital through multi-year infrastructure projects. Third, they haveContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines”
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