Last week the Chinese central bank finally cut one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10bps from 3.8% to 3.7%, and also cut five-year LPR by 5bps to 4.60%, the first cut since April 2020 when global economy was in the midst of pandemic uncertainty. In the past two months we have also seen the creditContinueContinue reading “U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection”
Category Archives: Investment Management
Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments
This research paper is prepared by and is the property of H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e.com and Putamen Capital and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other groupContinueContinue reading “Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments”
Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy
Download PDF: monthly_202111Download Copper price jumped 14% last month before reversing its gain amid the shutdown of refineries in China that trigger concerns of refined copper shortages at a time when inventory at commodity exchange warehouses is low. The impact of the electricity shortage in China is not limited solely to copper, but also toContinueContinue reading “Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy”
China: Implications from Real Estate Crackdown and Growth Outlook
Download PDF: perspective-on-chinese-real-estate-sector-pcDownload The news related to Evergrande default last month has reignite investors attention to the country real estate sector, which is a major driver of Chinese growth and strongly intertwined to the country’s banking sector. Moreover, property accounts for 70% of household wealth – a significantly higher portion compared to U.S. and JapanContinueContinue reading “China: Implications from Real Estate Crackdown and Growth Outlook”
EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn
Download PDF: downturn-ahead-2021q4-pcDownload The global economic boom unfolding in the past year is showing signs of moderation, with data from China – the first country to suffer and come out of the pandemic – currently signaling a contraction in manufacturing activities. It is very likely that the U.S. and Euro area will also see aContinueContinue reading “EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn”
Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar
Download PDF: monthly_202109Download Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest ofContinueContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”
Where Is The Correction?
Download PDF: where-is-the-correctionDownload For over a year, investors have been rewarded for tilting their portfolio towards risk assets on the backdrop of plentiful support for households from the government’s generous fiscal transfer that supported spending and Fed’s support on the credit market, preventing a crunch in liquidity of the debt market. The unprecedented fiscal andContinueContinue reading “Where Is The Correction?”
Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate
Download PDF: monthly_202107Download Global stocks continue to experience a dichotomy in recent months amid unequal economic recovery in the developed and emerging world. With vaccination rate crossing above 50% of total population and covid-19 number goes into the rear-view mirror in the rich world, both manufacturing and service sector has rebounded strongly amid last year’sContinueContinue reading “Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate”
Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals
Download PDF: monthly_202106Download Blow-out number of various economic indicators coming in the past weeks – PMI, retail sales, inflation – suggest that the global cycle is peaking out and the strongest period of growth is in the rear-view mirror. In the short-term, the risk assets rally that began in March 2020 is likely to takeContinueContinue reading “Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals”
World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation
Download PDF: monthly_202105-1Download monthly_202105Download Developed World: Earnings and Valuation Outlook Earnings for most sector has recovered to pre-pandemic level, with health care and IT sector posting strong earnings in Q1. Growth expectations for both sectors, and materials, are strong and valuation is not demanding for the later. We believe that we are entering a structuralContinueContinue reading “World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation”
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