Download PDF: turkey-the-cbrt-strikes-back-and-a-new-hopeDownload The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey finally capitulated to market pressure and raised its policy rates by 200 bps last week amid a weakening lira. This is a reversal of its aggressive easing policy since the 2018 crisis, when the central bank has been under government pressure to bring itsContinueContinue reading “Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?”
Tag Archives: strategy
A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico
Download PDF: a-tale-of-two-latam-economiesDownload Brazilian manufacturing sector’s recovery has been surprisingly strong post-pandemic, outpacing other EM countries, despite the still poor health care situation and strict lockdown restriction nationally. However, the strong rebound has not been followed proportionately by the country’s asset prices, contrary to the development seen in Mexico (Chart 1). The country still recordsContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico”
Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202009Download Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close toContinueContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”
Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery
Download PDF: taking-a-pulse-on-em-recoveryDownload The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousandContinueContinue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”
Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars
Download PDF: turning-point-in-the-commodity-cycleDownload 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisisContinueContinue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”
Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis
Download PDF: the-investment-case-for-indonesian-equitiesDownload Preparing the Groundwork for A Takeoff Indonesia’s macro profile has significantly improved in the past decade despite still running fiscal and current account deficit. First, government spending has been reoriented toward building human and capital stock, supported by the country’s high savings rate, while public debt level remained among the lowest acrossContinueContinue reading “Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis”
Assessing the Risk in EM Countries
Download PDF: monthly_202006Download Various quarantine measures imposed across EM countries to curb the spread of COVID-19 has put government, corporate and household at an unprecedented amount of pressure. Unlike in U.S. and Europe, where outsized government fiscal stimulus is being rolled-out to help consumers and corporates to weather liquidity pressure during the lockdown period, theContinueContinue reading “Assessing the Risk in EM Countries”
LATAM Countries Revisited
Download PDF: LATAM Countries Revisited PC Argentina The Fernandez government is taking a hard stance on the debt renegotiation, postponing interest payment until 2023 and forcing a 5-12% haircut on the bond principal value. The “Globales” bond’s principal under restructuring amounts to 6.7% GDP and its annual interest expense close to 0.4% GDP. The keyContinueContinue reading “LATAM Countries Revisited”
Monthly April 2020: Peak COVID-19, Counting the Cost of the Lockdown, and Equity Screaming Buy!
Download PDF: Monthly_202004 With the COVID-19 already spreading globally for over two months now and stock market seems to have bottomed, investors are right to ask whether we are at the peak of COVID-19 infection rate. In this article, we discuss where we are in the COVID-19 crisis cycle, the implication on countries’ banking systemContinueContinue reading “Monthly April 2020: Peak COVID-19, Counting the Cost of the Lockdown, and Equity Screaming Buy!”
Emerging Markets in The Next Decade
Download PDF: Monthly_202001 In this first publication for 2020, we are outlining our bullish view on selected EM countries which will likely benefit as investors diversify from U.S. equities. It has been pretty much a consensus by now that risk assets will likely to do well this year, with some strategists betting on the value/growthContinueContinue reading “Emerging Markets in The Next Decade”
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