October 2019: 1st Anniversary of Putamen Capital

Download PDF: Monthly_201910 Risk and Return This month marks the 1st anniversary of Putamen Capital, with Putamen Growth Fund (PGF), our sole and flagship fund, recorded 34.15% return between October 24th, 2018 and September 30th, 2019. Since the inception, we have been exploring various type of equity, option and volatility strategy across developed and emergingContinue reading “October 2019: 1st Anniversary of Putamen Capital”

September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation

Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”

Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio

Download PDF: Market Timing Strategy of Emerging Markets Portfolio Despite the recent volatility from the trade war and deterioration in global growth, from a valuation perspective, however, EM stocks remain cheap compared to its historical averages and relative to DM equities. Since around 2012, as the earnings generation capability of EM stocks declined, investors haveContinue reading “Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio”

July 2019: Recession vs Reflation

Download PDF: Monthly_201907 “For months investors have been concerned about potential recession in the U.S., yet the stock market is at all time high. How could we reconcile these developments?”, asked one my friend who is working at an asset management company. The effects from reflationary effort from China has yet to be seen andContinue reading “July 2019: Recession vs Reflation”

June 2019: Searching For The Tipping Point

Download PDF: Monthly_201906 Theme 1: Long Selected Undervalued Countries and Short U.S. Equities. This week U.S. PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the expansion of U.S. economy (manufacturing PMI 50.6 in May 2019 from 56 in the beginning of the year), raising the odds of undershoot of earnings forecast of U.S equities and theContinue reading “June 2019: Searching For The Tipping Point”

April 2019: Is the Recession in Front or Behind Us?

Download PDF: March19_PC It is tempting to argue that we are currently experiencing the “manufacturing recession”, similar to the “commodity recession” we experienced back in 2011-2012 and 2014-2015. All the data is supporting the thesis that we did have a recession in 2018, albeit a mild one: 1) industrial production and manufacturing PMI weakens inContinue reading “April 2019: Is the Recession in Front or Behind Us?”

Putamen Capital: March 2019 Bird Eye View

Four months after Putamen Capital started trading, we continue to build and improve our database, model and quantitative trading strategy to guide our investment decision, with the goal of building an all-weather portfolio that outperform our benchmark (MSCI All Country World Index). This month we introduce an enhanced version of our tactical asset allocation andContinue reading “Putamen Capital: March 2019 Bird Eye View”

Putamen Capital: January 2019 Update

Our strategy last quarter to allocate small portion for equity paid off handsomely. Since we first launched our asset allocation model in October 2018, our model portfolio returned by 1.8% while our benchmark, MSCI ACWI, lost 6.0%. This month, the model recommends increasing the defensiveness of the portfolio by allocating 100% to bonds, a safe-havenContinue reading “Putamen Capital: January 2019 Update”

World Equity Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency Ranking

This year proved to be a volatile one, starting with the volatility jump in February, which led to emerging markets turmoil. Argentina and Turkey have suffered from increasing inflationary pressure that was exacerbated by the plunging currency, and other emerging market countries have suffered too, albeit at a lower intensity. Chinese A-share has been beatenContinue reading “World Equity Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency Ranking”