Download PDF: 202102_turkey_brazil_pcDownload Stay Positive on Brazilian Assets The backdrop for Brazilian assets remains bullish amid rising commodity prices and undervalued Real (Chart 1). In addition, Brazilian economy has recovered strongly and various indicators – such as manufacturing PMI and retail sales – are now back to pre-pandemic level (Chart 2). With the global economyContinueContinue reading “On Brazil and Turkey”
Tag Archives: equity
March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand
Download PDF: monthly_202103Download Part I. World’s Equity Valuation One year after the Covid-19-induced market crash, global equity market has gone through a V-shaped recovery with stock market in many countries breaking record high level amid ample monetary and fiscal stimulus. The U.S. market valuation – now trading at cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of 32 times –ContinueContinue reading “March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand”
EM Taper Tantrum Déjà vu?
Download PDF: em-and-taper-tantrum_pcDownload Potential for Sizable Portfolio Outflow is Limited. The period before 2013 Taper Tantrum was marked by strong capital flow into EM assets, in contrast to current situation where flow into EM bonds and equities are only beginning to recover (Chart 1). More importantly foreign ownership of EM bonds, especially for the moreContinueContinue reading “EM Taper Tantrum Déjà vu?”
January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review
Download PDF: monthly_202101Download Part I: Silver Last week seen silver prices dropped remarkably amid rising long-term bond yield and receding dollar weakness. We have been constructive on the precious metal and commodity complex for a while now and remain to be so in the reflationary environment. There are reasons to believe that the commodity bullContinueContinue reading “January 2021: Silver and Equity Strategy Review”
2021 EM Equity High Conviction Calls
Download PDF: 2021_em_equity_callsDownload Poland Polish manufacturing sector and exports have both staged a V-shaped recovery despite the reintroduction of a strict lockdown across major European countries (Chart 1). As an open economy that is highly integrated with European manufacturing sector Poland has benefited from the sharp recovery of German manufacturing (Chart 2-4), which points toContinueContinue reading “2021 EM Equity High Conviction Calls”
End of Year Chart Update
Download PDF: 202012_end-of-year-chart-updateDownload With the year almost ending and asset prices have rebounded strongly, we are becoming increasingly cautious on adding position to our core portfolio holdings and prefer to stay on the sideline until the next correction, at the risk of missing further upside moves. Technical and valuation point to an overbought and overvaluedContinueContinue reading “End of Year Chart Update”
Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202009Download Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close toContinueContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”
Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe
Download PDF: assessing-em-countries-vulnerabilitiesDownload EM equity has experienced indiscriminate sell-off during the peak of this year’s market rout, with losses ranging from 20% to 60% across 18 countries. Since its March’s low, however, few countries have staged a strong asset prices recovery, whereas others are still lagging and have barely recover half of their losses (ChartContinueContinue reading “Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe”
August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas
Download PDF: monthly_202008Download The Money Flow: How the Money Goes Around From a macro perspective, there is only three players that drive the economy and financial markets in a country: households, private corporations (including banks) and the government. Each player’s action impacts the other and altogether they drive the economic machine of supply and demand,ContinueContinue reading “August 2020: Gathering Thoughts and Some Investment Ideas”
World Country Valuation
Even as world equity has rebounded from its March’s low, many stocks are still cheap relative to its historical valuation. Book value multiple remains depressed as earnings multiple stayed at its historical average, as profitability declined significantly this year for majority of the market. Our three main top pick markets, Mexico, Turkey and Chile, remainContinueContinue reading “World Country Valuation”
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