Download PDF: taking-a-pulse-on-em-recoveryDownload The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousandContinueContinue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”
Category Archives: Research
Key Points: The Art of Short Selling -Kathryn F. Stanley
In the past few months, like many investors, I have been fascinated by the meteoric rise of NASDAQ and S&P 500 index amid the slump in U.S. economic activity. Companies like TSLA, which are popular among retail traders, have more than quadrupled in the past year and detach from reality. As market participant, the questionContinueContinue reading “Key Points: The Art of Short Selling -Kathryn F. Stanley”
Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe
Download PDF: assessing-em-countries-vulnerabilitiesDownload EM equity has experienced indiscriminate sell-off during the peak of this year’s market rout, with losses ranging from 20% to 60% across 18 countries. Since its March’s low, however, few countries have staged a strong asset prices recovery, whereas others are still lagging and have barely recover half of their losses (ChartContinueContinue reading “Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe”
Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM
Download PDF: 202008_rethinking-investment-strategy-in-a-weak-dollar-worldDownload Precious Metals vs Real Yield Our positioning on silver call options since July has been rewarded bigly as silver price almost doubled this year as the time of this writing. Although we are not early in the party, we have managed to ride most of the large price movement of late, includingContinueContinue reading “Rethinking Investment Strategy in a Weak Dollar World: Silver, Treasury Yield, Commodities and EM”
A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines
Download PDF: indonesia-vs-philippinesDownload As a rising growth star in the Emerging Market universe and South East Asia region, both Indonesia and Philippines share many similarities. First, both countries run fiscal and current account deficit. Second, both have a government that are currently focusing on building the country’s capital through multi-year infrastructure projects. Third, they haveContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Philippines”
Retail Mania: Short Tesla Thesis
The price rally this year on tech and leading hot stocks have been phenomenal. Investors and sell-side analyst price target have been blown away by the stock performance, driven mostly by retail trader’s purchase, as could be seen from data provided by robintrack (https://robintrack.net/popularity_changes). The website is a useful proxy for mania candidate and retailContinueContinue reading “Retail Mania: Short Tesla Thesis”
Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly
For the past several quarters, we have maintained a constructive view on Turkish assets, particularly on the country’s equity and currency, as valuations are already significantly depressed even before the COVID-19 rout. Percentile of equity multiples for Turkish equity is near its two decades low and the Turkish Lira is more than 20% undervalued, accordingContinueContinue reading “Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly”
World Country Valuation
Even as world equity has rebounded from its March’s low, many stocks are still cheap relative to its historical valuation. Book value multiple remains depressed as earnings multiple stayed at its historical average, as profitability declined significantly this year for majority of the market. Our three main top pick markets, Mexico, Turkey and Chile, remainContinueContinue reading “World Country Valuation”
Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa
Download PDF: revisiting-latam-and-emea-countriesDownload Brazil: Negative Outlook Valuation is dearer than the average EM countries, although the rout has knocked out excessive valuation for Brazilian stocks. Book value multiple has indeed declined from 2.3x to 1.8x currently, but weak profitability due to depressed commodity prices has translated into an expensive forward earnings multiple at 14x, whichContinueContinue reading “Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa”
Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis
Download PDF: the-investment-case-for-indonesian-equitiesDownload Preparing the Groundwork for A Takeoff Indonesia’s macro profile has significantly improved in the past decade despite still running fiscal and current account deficit. First, government spending has been reoriented toward building human and capital stock, supported by the country’s high savings rate, while public debt level remained among the lowest acrossContinueContinue reading “Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis”
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