bubble

The New Playbook

A regime change is underway in markets. The two decades of disinflation, globalization, and central-bank dominance that shaped a generation of portfolios are giving way to a more fragmented, inflationary, and fiscally driven world. This note lays out the new playbook across three lenses: the geopolitical backdrop, the shift from monetary to fiscal dominance, andContinueContinue reading “The New Playbook”

Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik

As an Emerging Markets analyst, the issue on China has always been divisive. On one side, the bear points to high household and corporate leverage, alongside local government opaque finance vehicle that masks the true government borrowing. But on the other hand, the bull has gained the higher ground in the past decade as muchContinueContinue reading “Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik”

China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.

This piece is a summary of recent NBER paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang arguing that Chinese housing market fits the characteristics of a bubble and forms a significant portion of Chinese GDP. The original paper could be found: peak-china-housing-1Download And the PDF version of this summary could be downloaded: peak-china-housing-rogoff-skDownload Real estate andContinueContinue reading “China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.”

Key Points: The Art of Short Selling -Kathryn F. Stanley

In the past few months, like many investors, I have been fascinated by the meteoric rise of NASDAQ and S&P 500 index amid the slump in U.S. economic activity. Companies like TSLA, which are popular among retail traders, have more than quadrupled in the past year and detach from reality. As market participant, the questionContinueContinue reading “Key Points: The Art of Short Selling -Kathryn F. Stanley”