Download PDF: Russia -Neutral View + The tendency for oil prices is to move higher as global lockdown restrictions are lifted and a nation-wide lockdown is averted amid the virus’ second wave infection. Half of Russian equity index is dominated by energy companies and the economy is also very dependent on oil prices, making RussianContinue reading “Reassessing the Investment Thesis on EM Countries: Russia, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia”
Author Archives: Journeyman
Where Are Precious Metals Headed?
Download PDF: The rally in gold and silver prices this year has been impressive, although both metals have corrected somewhat. With the prospect of further stimulus still being debated, it is useful to revisit the thesis behind our bullish call on precious metals and reassess our portfolio positioning. First, let us start with the tailwinds:Continue reading “Where Are Precious Metals Headed?”
The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks
Download PDF: The long-term demand growth of energy products remains intact, mainly arising from rising middle class in emerging market countries. Oil will remain a major source of energy in the coming decades, however, oil-based power source is increasingly replaced by gas and other renewable sources, including solar and wind technologies. EIA projects oil consumptionContinue reading “The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks”
Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?
Download PDF: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey finally capitulated to market pressure and raised its policy rates by 200 bps last week amid a weakening lira. This is a reversal of its aggressive easing policy since the 2018 crisis, when the central bank has been under government pressure to bring its policyContinue reading “Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?”
A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico
Download PDF: Brazilian manufacturing sector’s recovery has been surprisingly strong post-pandemic, outpacing other EM countries, despite the still poor health care situation and strict lockdown restriction nationally. However, the strong rebound has not been followed proportionately by the country’s asset prices, contrary to the development seen in Mexico (Chart 1). The country still records contractingContinue reading “A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico”
Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery
Download PDF: Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close to zeroContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”
Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik
As an Emerging Markets analyst, the issue on China has always been divisive. On one side, the bear points to high household and corporate leverage, alongside local government opaque finance vehicle that masks the true government borrowing. But on the other hand, the bull has gained the higher ground in the past decade as muchContinue reading “Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik”
China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.
This piece is a summary of recent NBER paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang arguing that Chinese housing market fits the characteristics of a bubble and forms a significant portion of Chinese GDP. The original paper could be found: And the PDF version of this summary could be downloaded: Real estate and its associatedContinue reading “China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.”
Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery
Download PDF: The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousand population,Continue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”
Key Points: The Art of Short Selling -Kathryn F. Stanley
In the past few months, like many investors, I have been fascinated by the meteoric rise of NASDAQ and S&P 500 index amid the slump in U.S. economic activity. Companies like TSLA, which are popular among retail traders, have more than quadrupled in the past year and detach from reality. As market participant, the questionContinue reading “Key Points: The Art of Short Selling -Kathryn F. Stanley”