Downlaod PDF: Emerging Market Bonds High-yielding EM government and corporate bonds are likely to perform well in negative yields environment as investors search for yield. Although debt level has been rising, interest cost has been declining. Profit growth has also been outpacing the increase in interest cost, which does not translate the increase in debtContinueContinue reading “The Sweet Spot for Emerging Market Bonds”
Author Archives: Journeyman
Russia: Country Overview
Download PDF: Russia Research 2019 The Linkage between Oil Price and The Russian Economy There is little sign that Russian economy is diversifying from energy production and exports in the last 20 years. The direct link and trickle-down effect of higher/lower oil prices to the economy result in an economy that is highly correlated withContinueContinue reading “Russia: Country Overview”
September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinueContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”
ETF Outlook and Overview of Smart/Multifactor ETF
Downlaod PDF: EM ETF PC Under-Investment in Emerging Markets Equity The past two decades’ development of global trade and foreign investment in developing countries have lifted the living standard of many, particularly in emerging Asian economies. Share of emerging markets economy in the world has increased by 20% to 34% of world as faster growthContinueContinue reading “ETF Outlook and Overview of Smart/Multifactor ETF”
Update on Brazil and South Africa
Download PDF: Brazil and South Africa Update Brazil’s economy is slowing, but positive development on pension reform has charged the market of late. Much of the positive development has been priced in and the risk of further slowdown in the economy is rising. Brazilian stocks are not cheap relative to EM overall, currently at itsContinueContinue reading “Update on Brazil and South Africa”
August 2019: The Long View, Turkey and Revisiting This Year Investment Thesis
Read in PDF: Monthly 201908 As bond yields continue to stumble globally, we expect that more SWF and pension fund will divert allocation from fixed income to both public and private equity, which would be a boon for the deepening of stock market globally. Holding developed countries’ government bond is a sure way of losingContinueContinue reading “August 2019: The Long View, Turkey and Revisiting This Year Investment Thesis”
Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio
Download PDF: Market Timing Strategy of Emerging Markets Portfolio Despite the recent volatility from the trade war and deterioration in global growth, from a valuation perspective, however, EM stocks remain cheap compared to its historical averages and relative to DM equities. Since around 2012, as the earnings generation capability of EM stocks declined, investors haveContinueContinue reading “Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio”
July 2019: Recession vs Reflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201907 “For months investors have been concerned about potential recession in the U.S., yet the stock market is at all time high. How could we reconcile these developments?”, asked one my friend who is working at an asset management company. The effects from reflationary effort from China has yet to be seen andContinueContinue reading “July 2019: Recession vs Reflation”
An Overview of Russia: Oil, External Risk and The Banking Sector
Download PDF: The Linkage between Oil Price and The Russian Economy There is little sign that Russian economy is diversifying from energy production and exports in the last 20 years. The direct link and trickle-down effect of higher/lower oil prices to the economy result in an economy that is highly correlated with the global economicContinueContinue reading “An Overview of Russia: Oil, External Risk and The Banking Sector”
Lessons from Past Equity Market Responses During Periods of High Inflation
Download PDF: Market Responses During Periods of High Inflation Recent crisis in Argentina and Turkey have left me wonder, why does equity markets in local currency terms always corrects during periods of high inflation although in the medium-term corporates are able to maintain their margin through gradual increase of price of their products? My logicContinueContinue reading “Lessons from Past Equity Market Responses During Periods of High Inflation”
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