Both industrial activity and consumer cycle have, for the majority of the time in recent decades, ebb and flow in the same direction. This is mainly due to the existence of common drivers, such as change in interest rates and fiscal spending, that impact both parts of the economy positively or negatively, although at aContinueContinue reading “AI and Industrial-led Cycle; Consumers to Remain in Doldrum”
Tag Archives: inequality
U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season
In last month’s piece we suggested that the U.S. labour market and economic growth have likely grown at a below-trend rate: “Below the surface, however, we are watching for the crosscurrent in U.S. labour market data that is the Achilles heel of America’s consumer-driven economy. The 3-month moving average of non-farm payroll gains have droppedContinueContinue reading “U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season”
September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinueContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”
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