Download PDF: March19_PC It is tempting to argue that we are currently experiencing the “manufacturing recession”, similar to the “commodity recession” we experienced back in 2011-2012 and 2014-2015. All the data is supporting the thesis that we did have a recession in 2018, albeit a mild one: 1) industrial production and manufacturing PMI weakens inContinueContinue reading “April 2019: Is the Recession in Front or Behind Us?”
Author Archives: Journeyman
Telkom Indonesia: The Nightmare is Over
Download PDF: TLKM_March2019 Continued Transformation to Data-based Revenue Rising Cost Hurts the Bottom Line Maintain Buy Rating with Target Price of Rp 4450/share Telkom’s 2018 annual report is likely to be disappointing, based on the recent trend in the sector and third quarter statement. After years enjoying high return and strong growth, the sector isContinueContinue reading “Telkom Indonesia: The Nightmare is Over”
Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Part II (Bonds)
PDF: Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles Part II -Bonds In the past five years, the size of Emerging Market corporate and sovereign bonds has increased by over 50%. This highlights the increasing need of investment for EM to continue growing. Although currently the size of EM bond market is pale compared to U.S. bondContinueContinue reading “Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Part II (Bonds)”
Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Equity
PDF: Emerging Markets Review A Review of Emerging Markets Equity Performance Emerging markets equity is an inherently volatile asset class, with annual volatility of 17.7% compared to 14.2% for its developed markets counterpart. Investors who were willing to endure the higher risk has been rewarded tremendously in the long run. Between 1988 and today (SeptContinueContinue reading “Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Equity”
Putamen Capital: March 2019 Bird Eye View
Four months after Putamen Capital started trading, we continue to build and improve our database, model and quantitative trading strategy to guide our investment decision, with the goal of building an all-weather portfolio that outperform our benchmark (MSCI All Country World Index). This month we introduce an enhanced version of our tactical asset allocation andContinueContinue reading “Putamen Capital: March 2019 Bird Eye View”
Putamen Capital: February 2019 Update
Our decision last month to portfolio equity allocation proved to be a correct one, despite our model suggesting a very defensive position. Emerging Markets and U.S. equity rallied on the backdrop of Fed dovishness and signs of reflation coming from China, the largest importer for many EM countries. We still believe that the growth slowdownContinueContinue reading “Putamen Capital: February 2019 Update”
Putamen Capital: January 2019 Update
Our strategy last quarter to allocate small portion for equity paid off handsomely. Since we first launched our asset allocation model in October 2018, our model portfolio returned by 1.8% while our benchmark, MSCI ACWI, lost 6.0%. This month, the model recommends increasing the defensiveness of the portfolio by allocating 100% to bonds, a safe-havenContinueContinue reading “Putamen Capital: January 2019 Update”
December 2018: Outlook, Update On Asset Allocation Model and Sector Valuation Overview
Thesis Review, US Treasury and Emerging Markets Prior to discussing our model update and 2019 sector outlook, we want to review our investment thesis from last month (Nov 24th), which has been panning out nicely. In the post we wrote: “In the anticipation of Fed backing-off from rising rates further in 2019, we do believeContinueContinue reading “December 2018: Outlook, Update On Asset Allocation Model and Sector Valuation Overview”
Assessment Of The Current Cycle: Asset Class Selection for Portfolio Construction
Figure 1. World Efficient Frontier (1988 – Nov 1988, except for few asset classes) A teacher of mine once said to me that in order to gain anything in life, investing included, we need to take risk. The amount of risk we are willing and able to face determines the expected gain or progress thatContinueContinue reading “Assessment Of The Current Cycle: Asset Class Selection for Portfolio Construction”
World Equity Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency Ranking
This year proved to be a volatile one, starting with the volatility jump in February, which led to emerging markets turmoil. Argentina and Turkey have suffered from increasing inflationary pressure that was exacerbated by the plunging currency, and other emerging market countries have suffered too, albeit at a lower intensity. Chinese A-share has been beatenContinueContinue reading “World Equity Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency Ranking”
