Musings on Commodity Prices, Inflation Turnaround and Cycle Turning Point

Download PDF: Monthly_201911 The structural backdrop of excess global savings, lackluster global consumption and investment demand and deleveraging cycle have all push bond yields lower. Meanwhile, the slack in manufacturing activity since 2014, magnified by the trade war, has push commodity prices in real terms to a level equal to those in 2001. Subjectively, itContinue reading “Musings on Commodity Prices, Inflation Turnaround and Cycle Turning Point”

The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia

Download PDF: Chile and Russia Similarities Both Chilean and Russian economy are dependent on natural resources, with copper accounting for 48% of Chile’s exports and oil & gas accounting for 41% of Russian exports. Both countries have rank moderately across EM countries in terms of exports size relative to GDP and rank lowly in termsContinue reading “The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia”

Update on Brazil and South Africa

Download PDF: Brazil and South Africa Update Brazil’s economy is slowing, but positive development on pension reform has charged the market of late. Much of the positive development has been priced in and the risk of further slowdown in the economy is rising. Brazilian stocks are not cheap relative to EM overall, currently at itsContinue reading “Update on Brazil and South Africa”

Putamen Capital: February 2019 Update

Our decision last month to portfolio equity allocation proved to be a correct one, despite our model suggesting a very defensive position. Emerging Markets and U.S. equity rallied on the backdrop of Fed dovishness and signs of reflation coming from China, the largest importer for many EM countries. We still believe that the growth slowdownContinue reading “Putamen Capital: February 2019 Update”

Relationship Between US Economic Indicator and Its Impact on Gold Price

Download the PDF Files with Graph: US Economic Indicator and its impact on Gold Price Saturday, December 29th 2017 This article is written to enhance the understanding of relationships between US monthly economic data and as a groundwork for my currency trade. The main goal is to find if difference in timing of the economic dataContinue reading “Relationship Between US Economic Indicator and Its Impact on Gold Price”