Download PDF: Monthly_201911 The structural backdrop of excess global savings, lackluster global consumption and investment demand and deleveraging cycle have all push bond yields lower. Meanwhile, the slack in manufacturing activity since 2014, magnified by the trade war, has push commodity prices in real terms to a level equal to those in 2001. Subjectively, itContinueContinue reading “Musings on Commodity Prices, Inflation Turnaround and Cycle Turning Point”
Author Archives: Journeyman
The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia
Download PDF: Chile and Russia Similarities Both Chilean and Russian economy are dependent on natural resources, with copper accounting for 48% of Chile’s exports and oil & gas accounting for 41% of Russian exports. Both countries have rank moderately across EM countries in terms of exports size relative to GDP and rank lowly in termsContinueContinue reading “The Tale of Two Countries: Chile and Russia”
Indonesia: Country Overview
Download PDF: Indonesia Research Two decades after the Asian Financial Crisis that created a havoc in Indonesian economy and politics, Indonesian role in global trade has been stagnating… … and is still very much influenced by the fluctuation in commodity prices, although at a lesser extent. Relative to other Emerging Market countries, Indonesia’s integration toContinueContinue reading “Indonesia: Country Overview”
October 2019: 1st Anniversary of Putamen Capital
Download PDF: Monthly_201910 Risk and Return This month marks the 1st anniversary of Putamen Capital, with Putamen Growth Fund (PGF), our sole and flagship fund, recorded 34.15% return between October 24th, 2018 and September 30th, 2019. Since the inception, we have been exploring various type of equity, option and volatility strategy across developed and emergingContinueContinue reading “October 2019: 1st Anniversary of Putamen Capital”
Mexico: Reaching Cyclical Bottom
Download PDF: Mexico_Reaching_Cyclical_Bottom It is likely that Mexican economic condition will improve going forward. Various indicators are at level comparable to those in 2013 and 2016 downturn and monetary stimulus is currently on progress. The easing stance of global monetary policy and reflationary effort in China are further likely to ease domestic condition and benefitContinueContinue reading “Mexico: Reaching Cyclical Bottom”
The Sweet Spot for Emerging Market Bonds
Downlaod PDF: Emerging Market Bonds High-yielding EM government and corporate bonds are likely to perform well in negative yields environment as investors search for yield. Although debt level has been rising, interest cost has been declining. Profit growth has also been outpacing the increase in interest cost, which does not translate the increase in debtContinueContinue reading “The Sweet Spot for Emerging Market Bonds”
Russia: Country Overview
Download PDF: Russia Research 2019 The Linkage between Oil Price and The Russian Economy There is little sign that Russian economy is diversifying from energy production and exports in the last 20 years. The direct link and trickle-down effect of higher/lower oil prices to the economy result in an economy that is highly correlated withContinueContinue reading “Russia: Country Overview”
September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinueContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”
ETF Outlook and Overview of Smart/Multifactor ETF
Downlaod PDF: EM ETF PC Under-Investment in Emerging Markets Equity The past two decades’ development of global trade and foreign investment in developing countries have lifted the living standard of many, particularly in emerging Asian economies. Share of emerging markets economy in the world has increased by 20% to 34% of world as faster growthContinueContinue reading “ETF Outlook and Overview of Smart/Multifactor ETF”
Update on Brazil and South Africa
Download PDF: Brazil and South Africa Update Brazil’s economy is slowing, but positive development on pension reform has charged the market of late. Much of the positive development has been priced in and the risk of further slowdown in the economy is rising. Brazilian stocks are not cheap relative to EM overall, currently at itsContinueContinue reading “Update on Brazil and South Africa”
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