Download PDF: global_themes_2021_2030-pcDownload Last month, we outlined our outlook for the year ahead, where Chinese growth will continue to rebound strongly and global liquidity remain plenty. This month, we are taking six themes for the coming decade, with the focus on inflation, savings-investment dynamic, and transition to renewable energy. I hope you enjoy the read.ContinueContinue reading “Global Themes 2021-2030”
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Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets
Download PDF: monthly_202011Download This year, the coronavirus and lockdown restriction enforced globally have driven the financial market at large, far outweighing the impacts from U.S.-China escalating geopolitical rivalry, war in the Caucasus, and U.S. Presidential Election. These themes are likely to continue in 2021 and already some of its effects lingered permanently, as discussed below.ContinueContinue reading “Global Themes 2021: China, U.S., and Emerging Markets”
South Africa: Is The Worst Yet To Come?
Download PDF: south_africa_202010Download South African government fiscal situation turned from bad to worse this year amid a shortfall in tax revenue and increase in spending to support growth (Chart 1). The government’s revision to its budget in June mainly reflects a shifting of its spending, i.e. delaying projects to 2021/2022 or beyond while prioritizing fundsContinueContinue reading “South Africa: Is The Worst Yet To Come?”
Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202010Download This month’s monthly piece is a short note on three signposts to monitor the growth recovery, taking a bird-eye perspective on risk assets after three separate publications last week detailing our view on oil, precious metals, and select country outlook; links are provided at the end of the piece. First, we areContinueContinue reading “Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery”
Reassessing the Investment Thesis on EM Countries: Russia, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia
Download PDF: q42020_reassessing-the-investment-thesis-on-em-countriesDownload Russia -Neutral View + The tendency for oil prices is to move higher as global lockdown restrictions are lifted and a nation-wide lockdown is averted amid the virus’ second wave infection. Half of Russian equity index is dominated by energy companies and the economy is also very dependent on oil prices, makingContinueContinue reading “Reassessing the Investment Thesis on EM Countries: Russia, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia”
Where Are Precious Metals Headed?
Download PDF: where-are-precious-metals-headedDownload The rally in gold and silver prices this year has been impressive, although both metals have corrected somewhat. With the prospect of further stimulus still being debated, it is useful to revisit the thesis behind our bullish call on precious metals and reassess our portfolio positioning. First, let us start with theContinueContinue reading “Where Are Precious Metals Headed?”
The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks
Download PDF: the-bearish-case-for-oilDownload The long-term demand growth of energy products remains intact, mainly arising from rising middle class in emerging market countries. Oil will remain a major source of energy in the coming decades, however, oil-based power source is increasingly replaced by gas and other renewable sources, including solar and wind technologies. EIA projects oilContinueContinue reading “The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks”
A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico
Download PDF: a-tale-of-two-latam-economiesDownload Brazilian manufacturing sector’s recovery has been surprisingly strong post-pandemic, outpacing other EM countries, despite the still poor health care situation and strict lockdown restriction nationally. However, the strong rebound has not been followed proportionately by the country’s asset prices, contrary to the development seen in Mexico (Chart 1). The country still recordsContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico”
Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202009Download Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds EM sovereigns are currently the only high-yielding asset class in the fixed income space, at a rate slightly above 4% – much above U.S. corporate and Treasury yield. This year crisis and massive QE program conducted by the Fed have brought U.S. Treasury yields close toContinueContinue reading “Structural Tailwinds for EM Sovereign Bonds and EM Stocks Uneven Recovery”
Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery
Download PDF: taking-a-pulse-on-em-recoveryDownload The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousandContinueContinue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”
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