Download PDF: Mexico_Reaching_Cyclical_Bottom It is likely that Mexican economic condition will improve going forward. Various indicators are at level comparable to those in 2013 and 2016 downturn and monetary stimulus is currently on progress. The easing stance of global monetary policy and reflationary effort in China are further likely to ease domestic condition and benefitContinueContinue reading “Mexico: Reaching Cyclical Bottom”
Tag Archives: equity
September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201909_The Effects of Money Printing by Central Bank Globally Why has inflation stay benign despite massive quantitative easing by most developed countries central bank? Negative Yields and Inequality It is natural that if something is not sustainable, it will stop. That is my general thoughts in the past few years after reading ThomasContinueContinue reading “September 2019 – Big Picture Stuff: Inequality, Negative Yields and Inflation”
Update on Brazil and South Africa
Download PDF: Brazil and South Africa Update Brazil’s economy is slowing, but positive development on pension reform has charged the market of late. Much of the positive development has been priced in and the risk of further slowdown in the economy is rising. Brazilian stocks are not cheap relative to EM overall, currently at itsContinueContinue reading “Update on Brazil and South Africa”
Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio
Download PDF: Market Timing Strategy of Emerging Markets Portfolio Despite the recent volatility from the trade war and deterioration in global growth, from a valuation perspective, however, EM stocks remain cheap compared to its historical averages and relative to DM equities. Since around 2012, as the earnings generation capability of EM stocks declined, investors haveContinueContinue reading “Market Timing Strategies in Emerging Markets Portfolio”
July 2019: Recession vs Reflation
Download PDF: Monthly_201907 “For months investors have been concerned about potential recession in the U.S., yet the stock market is at all time high. How could we reconcile these developments?”, asked one my friend who is working at an asset management company. The effects from reflationary effort from China has yet to be seen andContinueContinue reading “July 2019: Recession vs Reflation”
An Overview of Russia: Oil, External Risk and The Banking Sector
Download PDF: The Linkage between Oil Price and The Russian Economy There is little sign that Russian economy is diversifying from energy production and exports in the last 20 years. The direct link and trickle-down effect of higher/lower oil prices to the economy result in an economy that is highly correlated with the global economicContinueContinue reading “An Overview of Russia: Oil, External Risk and The Banking Sector”
Lessons from Past Equity Market Responses During Periods of High Inflation
Download PDF: Market Responses During Periods of High Inflation Recent crisis in Argentina and Turkey have left me wonder, why does equity markets in local currency terms always corrects during periods of high inflation although in the medium-term corporates are able to maintain their margin through gradual increase of price of their products? My logicContinueContinue reading “Lessons from Past Equity Market Responses During Periods of High Inflation”
June 2019: Searching For The Tipping Point
Download PDF: Monthly_201906 Theme 1: Long Selected Undervalued Countries and Short U.S. Equities. This week U.S. PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the expansion of U.S. economy (manufacturing PMI 50.6 in May 2019 from 56 in the beginning of the year), raising the odds of undershoot of earnings forecast of U.S equities and theContinueContinue reading “June 2019: Searching For The Tipping Point”
The Case for Underweighting U.S. Equity
And a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Overweight EM Equity In the last decade, Emerging Markets equity performance has been lagging its U.S. counterparts by a significant 50% margin. Undoubtedly, part of this is contributed by the gain of = hot technology stocks in the U.S. (FAANG). However, currently U.S. earnings growth is peakingContinueContinue reading “The Case for Underweighting U.S. Equity”
May 2019: The Dollar Story and Where Are We in the Cycle?
Download PDF: Monthly_2019_April The strength of the dollar has dismayed many investors, us included. The weakening growth in the U.S., as measured by final demand component of the GDP, has pointed downward and should lead to a weaker dollar at a time when China is reflating. We still believe that the current improvement in EuroContinueContinue reading “May 2019: The Dollar Story and Where Are We in the Cycle?”
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