Download PDF: downturn-ahead-2021q4-pcDownload The global economic boom unfolding in the past year is showing signs of moderation, with data from China – the first country to suffer and come out of the pandemic – currently signaling a contraction in manufacturing activities. It is very likely that the U.S. and Euro area will also see aContinueContinue reading “EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn”
Tag Archives: equity
Central and Eastern European Countries: Rising Rates Will Lift All Boats
Download PDF: central-and-eastern-european-countries-202109-pcDownload Central banks in Czech and Hungary have begun to raise their policy rate this year amid acceleration in inflation as their domestic recovery unfolds, creating a tailwind for the koruna and forint against the Euro, which will not see the ECB raising its borrowing cost anytime soon (Chart 1). With Central andContinueContinue reading “Central and Eastern European Countries: Rising Rates Will Lift All Boats”
Where Is The Correction?
Download PDF: where-is-the-correctionDownload For over a year, investors have been rewarded for tilting their portfolio towards risk assets on the backdrop of plentiful support for households from the government’s generous fiscal transfer that supported spending and Fed’s support on the credit market, preventing a crunch in liquidity of the debt market. The unprecedented fiscal andContinueContinue reading “Where Is The Correction?”
Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate
Download PDF: monthly_202107Download Global stocks continue to experience a dichotomy in recent months amid unequal economic recovery in the developed and emerging world. With vaccination rate crossing above 50% of total population and covid-19 number goes into the rear-view mirror in the rich world, both manufacturing and service sector has rebounded strongly amid last year’sContinueContinue reading “Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate”
EM Strategy and Dissecting EM Stocks Performance
Download PDF: em-strategy-and-dissecting-em-stocks-performance_pcDownload Potential peak in U.S. Treasury yield and copper/gold ratio, and gangbuster data coming from China, U.S., and Europe point to the passing of maximum growth momentum in post-pandemic recovery. Despite the pandemic still raging in parts of the world, especially in EM countries, strong recovery in China and the developed world meanContinueContinue reading “EM Strategy and Dissecting EM Stocks Performance”
World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation
Download PDF: monthly_202105-1Download monthly_202105Download Developed World: Earnings and Valuation Outlook Earnings for most sector has recovered to pre-pandemic level, with health care and IT sector posting strong earnings in Q1. Growth expectations for both sectors, and materials, are strong and valuation is not demanding for the later. We believe that we are entering a structuralContinueContinue reading “World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation”
Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star
Download PDF: peru-researchDownload For long investors have regarded Chile and Peru as one of the more stable Latam countries, as reflected in these countries’ borrowing cost and disciplined management of fiscal and monetary policy. Late last year, however, Peru went through a political crisis over the impeachment of former President Vizcarra by the Congress overContinueContinue reading “Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star”
On Brazil and Turkey
Download PDF: 202102_turkey_brazil_pcDownload Stay Positive on Brazilian Assets The backdrop for Brazilian assets remains bullish amid rising commodity prices and undervalued Real (Chart 1). In addition, Brazilian economy has recovered strongly and various indicators – such as manufacturing PMI and retail sales – are now back to pre-pandemic level (Chart 2). With the global economyContinueContinue reading “On Brazil and Turkey”
March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand
Download PDF: monthly_202103Download Part I. World’s Equity Valuation One year after the Covid-19-induced market crash, global equity market has gone through a V-shaped recovery with stock market in many countries breaking record high level amid ample monetary and fiscal stimulus. The U.S. market valuation – now trading at cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of 32 times –ContinueContinue reading “March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand”
EM Taper Tantrum Déjà vu?
Download PDF: em-and-taper-tantrum_pcDownload Potential for Sizable Portfolio Outflow is Limited. The period before 2013 Taper Tantrum was marked by strong capital flow into EM assets, in contrast to current situation where flow into EM bonds and equities are only beginning to recover (Chart 1). More importantly foreign ownership of EM bonds, especially for the moreContinueContinue reading “EM Taper Tantrum Déjà vu?”
putamencapital.com 