For the past fifteen years, U.S. assets are the only thing that matters. Foreign investors require little risk premium for investing in U.S. government bonds, which was and still is de facto safe-haven assets, and bid valuation for U.S. stocks higher. As we will discuss in the second part of this piece, comparable sector valuationContinueContinue reading “Higher Risk Premium on U.S. Assets and Fiscal Math”
Tag Archives: yield
U.S. Economy and Financial Market: Mean-reversion to Trend
For several years now strategists and geopolitical analysts have been talking about the changing global order. But events over the past one month have accelerated this discussion, with global investors selling U.S. equity, bonds, and the greenback. As of the time of writing (April 22, 2025), international equity – proxied by MSCI EAFE – hasContinueContinue reading “U.S. Economy and Financial Market: Mean-reversion to Trend”
Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy
Download PDF: monthly_202111Download Copper price jumped 14% last month before reversing its gain amid the shutdown of refineries in China that trigger concerns of refined copper shortages at a time when inventory at commodity exchange warehouses is low. The impact of the electricity shortage in China is not limited solely to copper, but also toContinueContinue reading “Making Sense of Copper and the Global Economy”
Brazil: Fiscal Crisis in the Making?
Download PDF: brazil-pc-202109Download The Brazilian 10-year bond yield has continued to shoot up to 11% this month amid the political debacle in the country and lack of credible proposal from the government to reign its growing public debt. A hawkish Fed, deterioration in Chinese growth and flareup of the pandemic globally all point to downsideContinueContinue reading “Brazil: Fiscal Crisis in the Making?”
Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate
Download PDF: monthly_202107Download Global stocks continue to experience a dichotomy in recent months amid unequal economic recovery in the developed and emerging world. With vaccination rate crossing above 50% of total population and covid-19 number goes into the rear-view mirror in the rich world, both manufacturing and service sector has rebounded strongly amid last year’sContinueContinue reading “Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate”
End of Year Chart Update
Download PDF: 202012_end-of-year-chart-updateDownload With the year almost ending and asset prices have rebounded strongly, we are becoming increasingly cautious on adding position to our core portfolio holdings and prefer to stay on the sideline until the next correction, at the risk of missing further upside moves. Technical and valuation point to an overbought and overvaluedContinueContinue reading “End of Year Chart Update”
Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity
Downlaod PDF: monthly_202012Download Earlier this week we published our long-term global themes, outlining the possibility of stronger inflationary pressure and the danger it poses to corporate sector. Meanwhile, we also publish our next year outlook last month, where we argue that Chinese growth will rebound strongly and liquidity will remain plenty, buoying asset prices. WithContinueContinue reading “Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity”
Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery
Download PDF: monthly_202010Download This month’s monthly piece is a short note on three signposts to monitor the growth recovery, taking a bird-eye perspective on risk assets after three separate publications last week detailing our view on oil, precious metals, and select country outlook; links are provided at the end of the piece. First, we areContinueContinue reading “Mapping Global Post-COVID Recovery”
Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars
Download PDF: turning-point-in-the-commodity-cycleDownload 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisisContinueContinue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”
Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity
Downlaod PDF: Monthly_202003 Blame it on the COVID-19 Global bond investors have largely benefitted from the COVID-19 scare this year amid plunging global yields led by the U.S. Treasury. The budding signs of reflation beginning late last year have largely dissipated and investors have been running to safe haven assets, with gold price increasing almostContinueContinue reading “Monthly March 2020: COVID-19 and The Bait and Switch in Global Equity”
putamencapital.com 