Where Are Precious Metals Headed?

Download PDF: The rally in gold and silver prices this year has been impressive, although both metals have corrected somewhat. With the prospect of further stimulus still being debated, it is useful to revisit the thesis behind our bullish call on precious metals and reassess our portfolio positioning. First, let us start with the tailwinds:Continue reading “Where Are Precious Metals Headed?”

The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks

Download PDF: The long-term demand growth of energy products remains intact, mainly arising from rising middle class in emerging market countries. Oil will remain a major source of energy in the coming decades, however, oil-based power source is increasingly replaced by gas and other renewable sources, including solar and wind technologies. EIA projects oil consumptionContinue reading “The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks”

Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik

As an Emerging Markets analyst, the issue on China has always been divisive. On one side, the bear points to high household and corporate leverage, alongside local government opaque finance vehicle that masks the true government borrowing. But on the other hand, the bull has gained the higher ground in the past decade as muchContinue reading “Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik”

Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery

Download PDF: The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousand population,Continue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”

Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe

Download PDF: EM equity has experienced indiscriminate sell-off during the peak of this year’s market rout, with losses ranging from 20% to 60% across 18 countries. Since its March’s low, however, few countries have staged a strong asset prices recovery, whereas others are still lagging and have barely recover half of their losses (Chart 1).Continue reading “Assessing EM Countries’ Vulnerabilities and MMT in EM Universe”

Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa

Download PDF: Brazil: Negative Outlook Valuation is dearer than the average EM countries, although the rout has knocked out excessive valuation for Brazilian stocks. Book value multiple has indeed declined from 2.3x to 1.8x currently, but weak profitability due to depressed commodity prices has translated into an expensive forward earnings multiple at 14x, which isContinue reading “Revisiting Our View on Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa”

Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis

Download PDF: Preparing the Groundwork for A Takeoff Indonesia’s macro profile has significantly improved in the past decade despite still running fiscal and current account deficit. First, government spending has been reoriented toward building human and capital stock, supported by the country’s high savings rate, while public debt level remained among the lowest across EMContinue reading “Indonesia: An In-Depth Analysis”

Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials

Download PDF: A Look at EM Financials K List of Interesting EM Banks: EM Banks EM banks are relatively more interesting compared to its DM counterpart, especially European and Japanese banks, that have become a collateral damage from negative interest rate policy. EM firms are heavily underleveraged compared to its DM counterpart. Banks in Indonesia,Continue reading “Research Note: A Look at Emerging Market Financials”

February 2020: In-Depth Analysis of EM Equities Performance, Valuation and Sector Comparison

Download PDF: Monthly_202002 Part I: EM Equity Performance in the Past Decade In the past decade, investing in Emerging Markets equity has not been particularly rewarding for most investors. Much of it could be blamed to the weakness of EM currencies against the greenback, rather than lackluster earnings growth in EM countries. All EM economies,Continue reading “February 2020: In-Depth Analysis of EM Equities Performance, Valuation and Sector Comparison”

ETF Outlook and Overview of Smart/Multifactor ETF

Downlaod PDF: EM ETF PC Under-Investment in Emerging Markets Equity The past two decades’ development of global trade and foreign investment in developing countries have lifted the living standard of many, particularly in emerging Asian economies. Share of emerging markets economy in the world has increased by 20% to 34% of world as faster growthContinue reading “ETF Outlook and Overview of Smart/Multifactor ETF”