Expectation of a more aggressive Fed rate hike amid longer-than-expected inflationary pressure triggered a violent repricing of U.S. stock market in January this year. Core PCE inflation in December continue to rise 4.85% over the previous year, driven primarily by higher energy and food prices, and pandemic-related items. Meanwhile, unemployment rate continues to decline toContinueContinue reading “Macro Landscape and The Fed”
Tag Archives: outlook
U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth
Download PDF: us-equity-sector-strategyDownload The 2021 post-pandemic recovery has been impressive, with record amount of fiscal stimulus propping up household spending and the corporate sector turning into a capex hyperdrive. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy and tilted toward the dovish side in the first half of the year, which fuel the froth andContinueContinue reading “U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth”
Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments
This research paper is prepared by and is the property of H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e.com and Putamen Capital and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other groupContinueContinue reading “Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments”
Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico
Download PDF: russia-and-mexico-2021q4-pcDownload Remains Overweight Russia Russia and other oil-exporting countries historically perform poorly during a global slowdown, but tighter discipline among OPEC+ and shale producers since last year has bolstered oil prices to above $80/bbl, which creates a positive spin for energy producers. We have been constructive on Russian and energy sector since lastContinueContinue reading “Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico”
Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil
Download PDF: brazil-chile-and-peru-2021q4-pcDownload Downgrade Chile and Peru to Underweight Our recommendation to trim exposure to Chile and Peru is driven by three things: downside risk in copper price, rising political risk, and aggressive tightening by both countries’ central bank. Slowdown in Chinese growth is going to weigh on commodity intensive Latam bourse heavily through theContinueContinue reading “Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil”
$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi
Download PDF: update-on-oil-russia_pcDownload Recent weeks have seen oil price keeps on climbing despite the thawing tension between U.S.-Iran relation that potentially bring additional 1.5 mb Bbl/day supply into the market. We are expecting a continued strong global recovery this year and restraint from Saudi and Russia in ramping up production, as currently the two countries’ContinueContinue reading “$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi”
EM Equity Earnings and Valuation Outlook
Download PDF: em_valuethesis_pcDownload EM Equity Earnings Outlook The broad EM benchmark has rallied hard in the past year and is now some 15% above the pre-pandemic level. After the fall in earnings for most EM countries – with EM benchmark’s earnings currently still 17% below January 2020 level – the market is now expecting sharpContinueContinue reading “EM Equity Earnings and Valuation Outlook”
Where Are We in The Cycle? Yield, Gold, and Copper
Download PDF: market_watch_cycle_pcDownload Copper/gold ratio has increased to prior peak in the business cycle, although yield curve is only halfway through. This could be explained by the dovish stance held by Federal Reserve to stay accommodative until maximum employment is achieved and inflation average at 2%, meaning that unlike in previous cycles, pre-emptive tightening isContinueContinue reading “Where Are We in The Cycle? Yield, Gold, and Copper”
Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star
Download PDF: peru-researchDownload For long investors have regarded Chile and Peru as one of the more stable Latam countries, as reflected in these countries’ borrowing cost and disciplined management of fiscal and monetary policy. Late last year, however, Peru went through a political crisis over the impeachment of former President Vizcarra by the Congress overContinueContinue reading “Peru: Latin America’s Growth Star”
On Brazil and Turkey
Download PDF: 202102_turkey_brazil_pcDownload Stay Positive on Brazilian Assets The backdrop for Brazilian assets remains bullish amid rising commodity prices and undervalued Real (Chart 1). In addition, Brazilian economy has recovered strongly and various indicators – such as manufacturing PMI and retail sales – are now back to pre-pandemic level (Chart 2). With the global economyContinueContinue reading “On Brazil and Turkey”
putamencapital.com 