It’s summertime and volatility in the financial market has been relatively muted compared to what we saw earlier this year. Indeed, summertime has historically been a period of relative quiet in the market before volatility started to pick up in September and October (Chart 1). For macro strategists, this is the perfect time to reflectContinueContinue reading “Twelve Questions on Top of Mind”
Tag Archives: commodity
The Unlikely Duo: Greenback Supremacy and Upturn for Base Metal Prices
“At the 1971 G10 Rome meetings, during the Nixon administration, then-Treasury Secretary John Connally said to a group of European finance ministers, “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.” Following a 25%+ rally since the low in October 2023, U.S. and global equity market finally saw the return of volatility and correction amongContinueContinue reading “The Unlikely Duo: Greenback Supremacy and Upturn for Base Metal Prices”
Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?
monthly_202206_pcDownload There is no doubt that the correction in risk assets has always been a great opportunity for long term investors to further accumulate equity exposure. Investors could boost their return by gearing towards equity every time stocks fell by over 20%. The question is, how far are we from the bottom in current marketContinueContinue reading “Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?”
Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?
Download PDF: monthly_202205_pcDownload For the past several months we have ramped up our bearish view towards risk assets amid the unfavorable global macro and geopolitical backdrop. Central banks across the world are tightening aggressively as inflation spiked to decades’ high in many developed countries and over double digit in several developing economies, while fiscal boostsContinueContinue reading “Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?”
U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection
Last week the Chinese central bank finally cut one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10bps from 3.8% to 3.7%, and also cut five-year LPR by 5bps to 4.60%, the first cut since April 2020 when global economy was in the midst of pandemic uncertainty. In the past two months we have also seen the creditContinueContinue reading “U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection”
Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil
Download PDF: brazil-chile-and-peru-2021q4-pcDownload Downgrade Chile and Peru to Underweight Our recommendation to trim exposure to Chile and Peru is driven by three things: downside risk in copper price, rising political risk, and aggressive tightening by both countries’ central bank. Slowdown in Chinese growth is going to weigh on commodity intensive Latam bourse heavily through theContinueContinue reading “Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil”
USDBRL – Better Entry Point Ahead
We are currently cautious on the BRL. Although valuation is cheap, deceleration in global growth and rising downside risk for global equities and commodities mean there will be a better entry point to short USD/BRL. Shorting EUR/BRL is a more attractive trade given the risk of a stronger dollar in such macro environment. First, theContinueContinue reading “USDBRL – Better Entry Point Ahead”
South Africa: The Not So Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Download PDF: south-africa-pc-202109Download Last November we discussed the cyclically bullish but bleaker longer-term outlook for South African assets, in which the former has played out nicely until the end of second quarter this year. Our long position on South African bond was closed on August 10 with 10.2% gain while our overweight recommendation on SouthContinueContinue reading “South Africa: The Not So Good, The Bad, and The Ugly”
Where Is The Correction?
Download PDF: where-is-the-correctionDownload For over a year, investors have been rewarded for tilting their portfolio towards risk assets on the backdrop of plentiful support for households from the government’s generous fiscal transfer that supported spending and Fed’s support on the credit market, preventing a crunch in liquidity of the debt market. The unprecedented fiscal andContinueContinue reading “Where Is The Correction?”
Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals
Download PDF: monthly_202106Download Blow-out number of various economic indicators coming in the past weeks – PMI, retail sales, inflation – suggest that the global cycle is peaking out and the strongest period of growth is in the rear-view mirror. In the short-term, the risk assets rally that began in March 2020 is likely to takeContinueContinue reading “Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals”
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