Download PDF: global_themes_2021_2030-pcDownload Last month, we outlined our outlook for the year ahead, where Chinese growth will continue to rebound strongly and global liquidity remain plenty. This month, we are taking six themes for the coming decade, with the focus on inflation, savings-investment dynamic, and transition to renewable energy. I hope you enjoy the read.ContinueContinue reading “Global Themes 2021-2030”
Category Archives: Research
South Africa: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Download PDF: southafrica_full202011Download South African government released its medium-term budget plan late last October, highlighting the steps it will take to bring the country’s spiraling public debt under control. South African assets had been bombed out this year, which offers attractive investment opportunities from a tactical point of view. However, structural outlook remains bleak andContinueContinue reading “South Africa: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly”
South Africa: Is The Worst Yet To Come?
Download PDF: south_africa_202010Download South African government fiscal situation turned from bad to worse this year amid a shortfall in tax revenue and increase in spending to support growth (Chart 1). The government’s revision to its budget in June mainly reflects a shifting of its spending, i.e. delaying projects to 2021/2022 or beyond while prioritizing fundsContinueContinue reading “South Africa: Is The Worst Yet To Come?”
Reassessing the Investment Thesis on EM Countries: Russia, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia
Download PDF: q42020_reassessing-the-investment-thesis-on-em-countriesDownload Russia -Neutral View + The tendency for oil prices is to move higher as global lockdown restrictions are lifted and a nation-wide lockdown is averted amid the virus’ second wave infection. Half of Russian equity index is dominated by energy companies and the economy is also very dependent on oil prices, makingContinueContinue reading “Reassessing the Investment Thesis on EM Countries: Russia, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia”
Where Are Precious Metals Headed?
Download PDF: where-are-precious-metals-headedDownload The rally in gold and silver prices this year has been impressive, although both metals have corrected somewhat. With the prospect of further stimulus still being debated, it is useful to revisit the thesis behind our bullish call on precious metals and reassess our portfolio positioning. First, let us start with theContinueContinue reading “Where Are Precious Metals Headed?”
The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks
Download PDF: the-bearish-case-for-oilDownload The long-term demand growth of energy products remains intact, mainly arising from rising middle class in emerging market countries. Oil will remain a major source of energy in the coming decades, however, oil-based power source is increasingly replaced by gas and other renewable sources, including solar and wind technologies. EIA projects oilContinueContinue reading “The Bearish Case for Oil Price and Energy Stocks”
Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?
Download PDF: turkey-the-cbrt-strikes-back-and-a-new-hopeDownload The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey finally capitulated to market pressure and raised its policy rates by 200 bps last week amid a weakening lira. This is a reversal of its aggressive easing policy since the 2018 crisis, when the central bank has been under government pressure to bring itsContinueContinue reading “Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?”
A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico
Download PDF: a-tale-of-two-latam-economiesDownload Brazilian manufacturing sector’s recovery has been surprisingly strong post-pandemic, outpacing other EM countries, despite the still poor health care situation and strict lockdown restriction nationally. However, the strong rebound has not been followed proportionately by the country’s asset prices, contrary to the development seen in Mexico (Chart 1). The country still recordsContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Latam Countries: Brazil and Mexico”
Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik
As an Emerging Markets analyst, the issue on China has always been divisive. On one side, the bear points to high household and corporate leverage, alongside local government opaque finance vehicle that masks the true government borrowing. But on the other hand, the bull has gained the higher ground in the past decade as muchContinueContinue reading “Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik”
China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.
This piece is a summary of recent NBER paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang arguing that Chinese housing market fits the characteristics of a bubble and forms a significant portion of Chinese GDP. The original paper could be found: peak-china-housing-1Download And the PDF version of this summary could be downloaded: peak-china-housing-rogoff-skDownload Real estate andContinueContinue reading “China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.”
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