It is often said that the invention of steam engine in the 18th century was one of the world’s greatest inventions in the past one thousand years. The printing press, electric lightbulb, vaccination, and computer are also among the top of the list. These inventions are considered great not solely due to their direct usageContinueContinue reading “This Time It’s Different?”
Tag Archives: emerging markets
The Landing: View from the Cockpit
Two years ago, when inflation started to accelerate across the developed world and central banks were expected to hike policy rates, global macro strategists saw dark clouds on the horizon that the global economy will have to pass through. The last time inflation went out of control was in the late 1970’s, which coincided withContinueContinue reading “The Landing: View from the Cockpit”
Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico
Download PDF: russia-and-mexico-2021q4-pcDownload Remains Overweight Russia Russia and other oil-exporting countries historically perform poorly during a global slowdown, but tighter discipline among OPEC+ and shale producers since last year has bolstered oil prices to above $80/bbl, which creates a positive spin for energy producers. We have been constructive on Russian and energy sector since lastContinueContinue reading “Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico”
Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil
Download PDF: brazil-chile-and-peru-2021q4-pcDownload Downgrade Chile and Peru to Underweight Our recommendation to trim exposure to Chile and Peru is driven by three things: downside risk in copper price, rising political risk, and aggressive tightening by both countries’ central bank. Slowdown in Chinese growth is going to weigh on commodity intensive Latam bourse heavily through theContinueContinue reading “Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil”
EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn
Download PDF: downturn-ahead-2021q4-pcDownload The global economic boom unfolding in the past year is showing signs of moderation, with data from China – the first country to suffer and come out of the pandemic – currently signaling a contraction in manufacturing activities. It is very likely that the U.S. and Euro area will also see aContinueContinue reading “EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn”
EM Bonds Revisited
Download PDF: em-bonds-revisited_pcDownload We remain positive on some EM local currency bonds, favoring countries with higher yields and cheaper currencies, stronger external profile, and lower interest burden. Investors should overweigh local currency bonds in Indonesia, China, Colombia and Russia, and under weigh those in India, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Chile.Valuation is cheap for both BrazilianContinueContinue reading “EM Bonds Revisited”
Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate
Download PDF: monthly_202107Download Global stocks continue to experience a dichotomy in recent months amid unequal economic recovery in the developed and emerging world. With vaccination rate crossing above 50% of total population and covid-19 number goes into the rear-view mirror in the rich world, both manufacturing and service sector has rebounded strongly amid last year’sContinueContinue reading “Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate”
Research Note: South Africa Local Curve
Download PDF: south-africa-local-curve-pcDownload South African local curve will likely continue to bear flatten in the coming months as the central bank start to raise policy rate as inflationary pressure rises – in line with other EM countries. Currently we see sufficient spread of ZA 10-year bonds against global benchmark amid the backdrop of abundant globalContinueContinue reading “Research Note: South Africa Local Curve”
$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi
Download PDF: update-on-oil-russia_pcDownload Recent weeks have seen oil price keeps on climbing despite the thawing tension between U.S.-Iran relation that potentially bring additional 1.5 mb Bbl/day supply into the market. We are expecting a continued strong global recovery this year and restraint from Saudi and Russia in ramping up production, as currently the two countries’ContinueContinue reading “$100 Oil? Crude Outlook, Russia and Saudi”
World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation
Download PDF: monthly_202105-1Download monthly_202105Download Developed World: Earnings and Valuation Outlook Earnings for most sector has recovered to pre-pandemic level, with health care and IT sector posting strong earnings in Q1. Growth expectations for both sectors, and materials, are strong and valuation is not demanding for the later. We believe that we are entering a structuralContinueContinue reading “World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation”
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