crisis

Assessing U.S. Consumers’ Health, Crisis in the East, and Repricing the Cost of Capital

The resurgence of the long end of the yield curve back to the high in October 2022 has puzzled many strategists and investors. Compared to last year when CPI inflation was at 8.3% y/y and the Fed was barely halfway through its monetary policy tightening cycle, CPI inflation today has fallen to 3.2% y/y (July)ContinueContinue reading “Assessing U.S. Consumers’ Health, Crisis in the East, and Repricing the Cost of Capital”

Being Defensive: Early or Simply Wrong?

One valuable suggestion my former boss gave me when I started writing macro research note was to imagine myself standing one year in the future, looking back to the events that have transpired since and asking yourself if it should have been more obvious. The regional banking crisis back in March is one of thoseContinueContinue reading “Being Defensive: Early or Simply Wrong?”

Brazil: Fiscal Crisis in the Making?

Download PDF: brazil-pc-202109Download The Brazilian 10-year bond yield has continued to shoot up to 11% this month amid the political debacle in the country and lack of credible proposal from the government to reign its growing public debt. A hawkish Fed, deterioration in Chinese growth and flareup of the pandemic globally all point to downsideContinueContinue reading “Brazil: Fiscal Crisis in the Making?”

Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?

Download PDF: turkey-the-cbrt-strikes-back-and-a-new-hopeDownload The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey finally capitulated to market pressure and raised its policy rates by 200 bps last week amid a weakening lira. This is a reversal of its aggressive easing policy since the 2018 crisis, when the central bank has been under government pressure to bring itsContinueContinue reading “Turkey: The CBRT Strikes Back and A New Hope?”

Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery

Download PDF: taking-a-pulse-on-em-recoveryDownload The current economic situation in majority of EM countries is still very bleak amid various lockdown measures, but the worst has likely passed as economic activity continue to recover in most countries (Chart 1). There are signs that even in the worst-hit EM countries, measured by number of deaths per hundred thousandContinueContinue reading “Taking A Pulse on EM Recovery”

Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly

For the past several quarters, we have maintained a constructive view on Turkish assets, particularly on the country’s equity and currency, as valuations are already significantly depressed even before the COVID-19 rout. Percentile of equity multiples for Turkish equity is near its two decades low and the Turkish Lira is more than 20% undervalued, accordingContinueContinue reading “Turkey Revisited: The Good, Bad and Ugly”

World Country Valuation

Even as world equity has rebounded from its March’s low, many stocks are still cheap relative to its historical valuation. Book value multiple remains depressed as earnings multiple stayed at its historical average, as profitability declined significantly this year for majority of the market. Our three main top pick markets, Mexico, Turkey and Chile, remainContinueContinue reading “World Country Valuation”

Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?

Download PDF: russia-do-you-hear-the-people-singDownload In the past few weeks, Russians have been venting their rage in both the street and online due to the increasing hardship resulting from various lockdown measures. But even before the virus struck, many have been protesting against the government, including against the planned constitutional reform that would extend President Putin termContinueContinue reading “Russia: Do You Hear the People Sing?”

Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil

Download PDF: Assessing EM Risk Apr20 The Framework: The starting point is to analyze on a big picture scale, which EM countries will potentially undergo a banking crisis arising from the combination of unsustainable hard-currency debt and FX collapse in the current rout. Indonesia, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Turkey are particularly vulnerable due toContinueContinue reading “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crisis in Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil”

The Parallel Case of Medicine and Economics: Reflection of a Medical Graduate Working in the Finance Industry

Coming from a medical background and working as a financial strategist for the past two years, I have always been astounded by how similar both subjects are on a grand scale. The world, it seems, are a perfect analog of our fragile human body. But instead of analyzing what is right and wrong with humanContinueContinue reading “The Parallel Case of Medicine and Economics: Reflection of a Medical Graduate Working in the Finance Industry”