And a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Overweight EM Equity In the last decade, Emerging Markets equity performance has been lagging its U.S. counterparts by a significant 50% margin. Undoubtedly, part of this is contributed by the gain of = hot technology stocks in the U.S. (FAANG). However, currently U.S. earnings growth is peakingContinueContinue reading “The Case for Underweighting U.S. Equity”
Category Archives: Research
Qualitative Screening on Countries Equity Valuation
In this post we highlight several countries equity market and their valuation that we found to be attractive to go long. The countries covered are Brazil, Canada, Germany, UK, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and the US. From a cycle point of view, Brazilian equity is in a tough spot. We expect the economy toContinueContinue reading “Qualitative Screening on Countries Equity Valuation”
VIX-Based Hedging Strategy for Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio
Download PDF: EM_VIX_Hedging_strategy EM equities’ superior returns relative to its DM counterparts have been associated with higher volatility and left-tail risk. Rule-based portfolio hedging reduces the severity of tail-risk and performance drag while improving EM portfolio’s risk-return profile over the long run. Currently EM VIX spread over S&P500 VIX is at an all time low,ContinueContinue reading “VIX-Based Hedging Strategy for Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio”
Quotes from Hedge Fund Market Wizard
Recently I finished reading a great book by Jack D. Schwager titled “Hedge Fund Market Wizard”. As a note to myself and traders interested to improve their system, here are some quotes that I found to be interesting. Set stop loss level that would prove the hypothesis is wrong and then limit the positionContinueContinue reading “Quotes from Hedge Fund Market Wizard”
EM Country Overview: Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, Russia
Download PDF: Q12019_LATAM_EMEA_Update A revisit of our investment thesis on emerging markets equities Mexico + (Overweight) Last year Mexican stocks were among the worst performer in the EM universe for two main reasons. First, the domestic economy is experiencing a sharp slowdown from industrial and oil production. Second, the increase in global risk aversion hasContinueContinue reading “EM Country Overview: Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, Russia”
Telkom Indonesia: The Nightmare is Over
Download PDF: TLKM_March2019 Continued Transformation to Data-based Revenue Rising Cost Hurts the Bottom Line Maintain Buy Rating with Target Price of Rp 4450/share Telkom’s 2018 annual report is likely to be disappointing, based on the recent trend in the sector and third quarter statement. After years enjoying high return and strong growth, the sector isContinueContinue reading “Telkom Indonesia: The Nightmare is Over”
Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Part II (Bonds)
PDF: Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles Part II -Bonds In the past five years, the size of Emerging Market corporate and sovereign bonds has increased by over 50%. This highlights the increasing need of investment for EM to continue growing. Although currently the size of EM bond market is pale compared to U.S. bondContinueContinue reading “Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Part II (Bonds)”
Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Equity
PDF: Emerging Markets Review A Review of Emerging Markets Equity Performance Emerging markets equity is an inherently volatile asset class, with annual volatility of 17.7% compared to 14.2% for its developed markets counterpart. Investors who were willing to endure the higher risk has been rewarded tremendously in the long run. Between 1988 and today (SeptContinueContinue reading “Lessons from Past Emerging Markets Cycles: Equity”
Assessment Of The Current Cycle: Asset Class Selection for Portfolio Construction
Figure 1. World Efficient Frontier (1988 – Nov 1988, except for few asset classes) A teacher of mine once said to me that in order to gain anything in life, investing included, we need to take risk. The amount of risk we are willing and able to face determines the expected gain or progress thatContinueContinue reading “Assessment Of The Current Cycle: Asset Class Selection for Portfolio Construction”
World Equity Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency Ranking
This year proved to be a volatile one, starting with the volatility jump in February, which led to emerging markets turmoil. Argentina and Turkey have suffered from increasing inflationary pressure that was exacerbated by the plunging currency, and other emerging market countries have suffered too, albeit at a lower intensity. Chinese A-share has been beatenContinueContinue reading “World Equity Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency Ranking”
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