china – Page 2

Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals

Download PDF: monthly_202106Download Blow-out number of various economic indicators coming in the past weeks – PMI, retail sales, inflation – suggest that the global cycle is peaking out and the strongest period of growth is in the rear-view mirror. In the short-term, the risk assets rally that began in March 2020 is likely to takeContinueContinue reading “Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals”

Global Themes 2021-2030

Download PDF: global_themes_2021_2030-pcDownload Last month, we outlined our outlook for the year ahead, where Chinese growth will continue to rebound strongly and global liquidity remain plenty. This month, we are taking six themes for the coming decade, with the focus on inflation, savings-investment dynamic, and transition to renewable energy. I hope you enjoy the read.ContinueContinue reading “Global Themes 2021-2030”

Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik

As an Emerging Markets analyst, the issue on China has always been divisive. On one side, the bear points to high household and corporate leverage, alongside local government opaque finance vehicle that masks the true government borrowing. But on the other hand, the bull has gained the higher ground in the past decade as muchContinueContinue reading “Key Points on China: The Bubble That Never Pops – Thomas Orlik”

China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.

This piece is a summary of recent NBER paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang arguing that Chinese housing market fits the characteristics of a bubble and forms a significant portion of Chinese GDP. The original paper could be found: peak-china-housing-1Download And the PDF version of this summary could be downloaded: peak-china-housing-rogoff-skDownload Real estate andContinueContinue reading “China: Peak Housing – Rogoff, K. S.”

Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars

Download PDF: turning-point-in-the-commodity-cycleDownload 5 Signposts for Global Equity Recovery The decline in DXY of late has arguably help global equity grind higher amid easing financial condition. For long, we have been highlighting the widening valuation between U.S. equity and the rest of the world, which has gone much cheaper post-COVID19 correction. In-line with previous crisisContinueContinue reading “Equity Signposts, Commodity Rebound and Chip Wars”